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The place for off topic discussion on Hookem

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6th Street

The place for off topic discussion on Hookem


It Worked!

  • JeezGuy


    Was wondering if you were coming back to the thread. You started it and then bailed. Figured you were just an antagonist.

  • papa horn

    Politics on a message board aren't the problem. People that can't communicate like adults are the problem.

  • Ok, I thought about it and it doesn't make sense


    "The tragedy of the Obama Presidency is that it ignored the supply side: the producers, the risk-takers, the salary earners who put in 50 and 60 hours a week to get ahead. They have been battered by Washington, and no matter how much government tries to conjure growth with more spending and easier monetary policy, businesses won't produce and workers won't work if government threatens to confiscate returns.

    Banks aren't lending as much as they might in no small part because of Dodd-Frank's penalties and regulations. Investors aren't investing or are sending their money abroad because the President is promising to wallop them with huge tax increases on January 1. Businesses aren't purchasing as much new equipment, or hiring as many workers, because they don't know what the real costs will be from new regulation and ObamaCare.

    A new report by the Progressive Policy Institute—run by Democrats—finds that if business investment had tracked the normal trend rate during this recovery, investment would be $1.4 trillion higher. The report fingers regulation on business and American investors finding better returns abroad. Yet Mr. Obama's solution is to raise the capital gains and dividend tax rates.

    In this policy environment, the miracle is that the U.S. economy is still growing as much as it is. That is a tribute to the natural desire of Americans to better themselves, to create the next Apple, or to discover the next technique for pulling natural gas out of shale rock.

    Added to the record of the last four years, the 1.5% second quarter should solidify in the public mind that President Obama has failed on the economy."

    Review & Outlook: The 1.5% Presidency - WSJ.c

    The Wall Street Journal says growth stumbles for the third time in this Less Than Great Recovery.
  • This post is full of Faux News talking points but little else. It's pretty much been proven that supply side economics is full of fail. We won't see real sustained growth until there is demand. The problem with demand is that we have decided to concentrate wealth to a degree almost never seen in this country thus reducing the percentage of the population with disposable down to pathetic and unsustainable levels. There will be a revolution and it won't be a conservative one.

  • Until we rid ourselves of the Federal Reserve, every president's economic policy is the same. No sense talking about anything else unless we're willing to start there. This is all part of the plan though. Sit back and enjoy the ride or as George Carlin was famous for saying..."when you're born into this world you are given a ticket to the freak show. When you're born in America you're given a front row seat"

  • JeezGuy

    hardly faux news. Supply side works but not when you have people creating an uncertain and unfriendly environment in which to make it possible to work. Any type of revolution as you suggest would be driven more by the revolutionaries believing the misinformation being thrown their way. Its not difficult to convince people they have somehow been treated unfairly because they aren't millionaires living the high life and they deserve or have a right to live that way. I have had money, lost money and made it back off my own sweat and hard work. I have hired people and had to let them go as a result. My success is their success because I pass it along.

    You're too busy trying to make a complicated issue a one sided one when in reality it is probably somewhere in the middle. Many that do not have disposable income/wealth probably spent most of their adult life collecting toys they couldn't afford, houses they couldn't afford or taking vacations they couldn't afford. Or more likely they could afford it as long as there was no hiccup along the way and in life there are hiccups. I have clients that are middle class income earners with 7 figure portfolios and I have some that would be considered rich by todays definition because of their income who have very little in their portfolio. In the end, it was how they chose to spend their money or save their money that created their situation. In fact, I have one couple who have a combined income that is middle class and they chose to save everything one of them makes and live off what the other makes. Lifes is about choices and the outcome of those choices. Always pointing the finger and saying its not fair is the easy out. Hell I listened to that from one of my siblings for many years until he figured out he was responsible for his lot in life and now he does very well and is extremely happy. But before he did that he was always saying its not fair, blah blah blah....

  • Keynesian economics (prefered school for socialist worldwide) has proven time and time again that any state directed economic plan fails in the long run. It fails every time, everywhere it has been tried. Man for better or worse is not motivated by his better angels, man is motivated by greed.

    In terms of your demand argument, you won't have demand until people have confidence. Obama has clearly screwed the pooch on that one and it is as good a reason as any to dump him. My wifes company redomiciled outside of the US to get away from him. I hired an HR consultant two weeks ago to work with me on healthcare, while I haven't made up my mind yet I am leaning towards dumping it for my employees. They can pay for the mandate themselves as the regulatory burden and cost are absurd for a company with 200 employees.

    I think it would be great to sit down at a dinner with Obama, he and his wife seem like they would be interesting and delightful company. In terms of leadership and follow through, he just isn't a good POTUS. Neither was the first Bush, or Carter. Not bad people just not good Presidents.

    This post was edited by ut755 21 months ago


  • JeezGuy

    Thats part of it but at the same time there is a huge chunk of cash sitting this one out so its not all about liquidity in the markets. Reality is we have been range bound for the past 4 months so the gains of the past few days have only reversed the losses of the previous week. There a many things at play here but it also comes down to investor belief. When you look at earnings they are actually good and that combined with reasonable stock valuations make stocks attractive to investors. Stocks typiclly following earnings. if historically the stock market p/e is 16 and it is currently 12 then one could assume it would rise by 33% to hit its historically average. GDP is not pretty but it is still positive and thats not a bad thing. The concern is will it continue to reverse itself.

    headline news, particularly out of Europe is having a dramatic effect too. Will austerity measures pass, will they not pass. Will struggling countries get the funds they need to shore up their balance sheets etc impacts investor sentiment and how they react. You also have more investors trying to day trade the sharp abrupt moves and that has some effect.

    Bigger picture and the question to ask though is are we coming out of a recession and headed into a brighter future in the market. Again, different schools of thought. Is what we are experiencing more like market corrections of 87-88, 91-92 or 2000-03 which were brief and the recovery quick or are they more similar to 1900-19, 29-49, 66-82 which were deeper and lasted longer? If the former then one would look at this as a correction that started in 07-08 and began to reverse itself in 09 plus. However, bigger picture one could reasonable say its more like the latter with the correction actually beginning in 2000 (after the huge run up in the mid to late 90's) and is still in place about 13 years later. If thats the case then in the more severe cases you typically average about 4 recessions and corrections in the market. To date we have had 2 so its possible we get a couple more and the problems will continue until roughly 2020 using historical timeframes for severe corrections/recessions (about 20 years per).

    But you also need to factor in what has transpired over the past few years as well. Jobs still are not being created and the deficit is out of control as is the deficit spending and revenues cannot keep up. How will that play in?

    The other thing to keep in mind when look at those two scenarios is in the shorter quicker recessions/corrections the markets typically moved up so losses recovered whereas in the longer more severe recessions/corrections the markets did little but move in a range. If you look at where the markets were as they peaked in 2000 the s&p broke through 1500 and finished the year just over 1300 (1320). Yesterday the market closed at 1385. So in 13 years the market has essentially done nothing. Basically the shorter less severe markets looked more like a man walking up the stair while bouncing a yo yo while the more severe ones look like a man walking down a flight of stairs bouncing a yo yo.

    Bottom line is its still scary out there but you can make money. Just have to be smart about it.

  • JeezGuy

    would agree with you. Greed is the ultimate motivator. I would probably add in the second Bush to your list for dinner. Its been poor leadership for awhile now and frankly I think the guy checked out the last few years his was in office.

  • It's not a matter of confidence for your average American, it's a matter of necessity. Most Americans simple have to spend every dollar they make/have. That's why I favor putting a few more dollars in their pockets first. Their quality of life will improve and they will spend the extra money dollar for doallar directly back into the overall economy........As far as your wife's company relocating, it was exactly what you talked about, greed

  • Most Americans don't simply have to spend every dollar they make. They choose to and it is a poor decision making process. Economic recoveries are never bottom up, they are always top down. The best way to put a few more dollars in their pockets? Well to start with they aren't tax payers in the sense that they don't pay income tax. I don't know what other subsidy you can give them past no taxes, food stamps and free health care. But that thinking is exactly why we have somewhere between 14 and 20 million people out of work. It is why we have great depression level economic growth and currency devaluation.

    It's time to ditch the grand socialist experiment and elect a more practical set of leaders.

    Actually they left so that they could be competitive, self sacrifice from a corporation in an extremely unlikely expectation on the part of the left...

    This post was edited by ut755 21 months ago


  • One of my favorite Churchill quotes and it still holds true today.

    "Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery."

    Daniel Yergin's book "The Commanding Heights : The Battle for the World Economy" was a great history of the economic failure of Keynesianism and Socialism" during the 20th century. We had a full century of a controlled experiment comparing the economic outcomes of American and Thatcher style capitalism vs. the Keynesian experiment of Europe. It was a decisive victory for capitalism; but in less that ten year, the lessons seem to have to be forgotten.

    This post was edited by gordosan 21 months ago

  • I understand that the market has been propped up by the massive liquidity that Bernacke has used to try to increase the velocity of the money supply. It's basically had no where to go except into the market; since the banks aren't lending after Dodd-Frank and corporations and individuals aren't in the mood to borrow in this regulatory environment. But we had a significant correction last summer when the economy looked to be heading back into a double dip. The odds of a double dip are much higher now than they were last year; so why is the market holding up. I don't ever remember a recession that didn't have a market correction going along in dance step. Just simply a disconnect that I can't get my head around.

  • It is really hard for me not to contribute to this discussion with some Earl's Pearls. I will say that some of you have posted logical thoughts and I hope that each of you will vote your conviction. I know I will.

    275-0 scoring margin 10-0 victories Dana X Bible's National Championship team

  • JeezGuy

    Well keep in mind you had a couple of things happening last year. In late May the markets were doing well and then the Greece fiasco took hold which pushed the markets down. They recovered somewhat and then hovered in a range for awhile while the morons in washington played chicken with the debt ceiling. When they screwed that up and U.S. debt was downgraded it killed the market and any potential for a continued range bound market or possible continued climb. The markets fell and bottomed on the last day of September (3rd quarter) with S&P hitting 1130 (from 1380). From there it was a 25% run up until late March when it then took another nosedive before steadying and running within a range again.

    Again, cash has helped prop things up but there is more cash sitting on the sidelines right now than ever.

  • But Europe is no healthier than it was a year ago. Actually, the demise of the Euro is closer if anything. France electing a socialist , whose response to their debt crisis is to roll back the retirment age to 60 was the final blow for me. Now Europe only has one adult paying for the party; and the Germans are going to tell the rest of Europe to go fu,, themselves at some point, perhaps as early as their next election. . The markets are simply grasping at straws when the ECB president comes out and says that he will do everything needed to save the Euro.
    We aren't dealing with the debt ceiling yet; but it will come just after the elections[it probably will actually hit before the elections, but the government economists will play games to delay it until Dec.]. Washington isn't any closer to dealing with the issue than it was then. I guess people think that the lame duck will come to an agreement. Maybe they are right, but count me skeptical. The economy looks worse at this point than it did last year. There were piles of cash sitting on the sideline then. Bernacke is running out of arrows. His Twist had much less effect on the economy than Q.E. II did. He's completely loaded the fiscal system with new money; but it's only gone back into the markets and probably has created the fourth bubble that the fed. has created in the past decade and a half.

  • JeezGuy

    Europes in the shitter and the euro could disappear. Merkel will tell the rest of Europe to go F themselves and frankly could bail. the idea of the euro was an interesting concept but I am not so sure anyone thought through how you can maintain a currency that is tied to so many different countries and cultures of varying sizes and needs that also have competing interests. German economy is vastly different from Greece, Spain etc...industrial vs. agrarian.

    But again, go back to my previous post. If you had to just take a stab at it then we appear to be in more of a severe economic downcycle which based on history, the only thing we really have to compare against, it could last as long as 20 years and have 4 or so corrections/recessions during that time. To date we are approximately 13 years into it (2000-13) and would go another 7-ish and we would have another 2 severe corrections/recessions since we have had 2 already (2000-03 and 2007-08) before we work our way out of it. But for me the underlying difference is the fiscal mismanagement and potential debt crisis we seem to be headed toward. I'd suspect we will be ok through the election and possibly into the first year of the new term. however, late 2013 and moving into 2014 look out since historically its the second year of a presidents term where shit happens (regardless of an incumbent or new guy).

    Needless to say I am more pessimistic than optimistic but that is also why I have a business partner to bounce ideas off of.

  • This is not correct. Go look at Marquez, or Kossee, or center, Crockett, and tell me why all the new motels, cafes, RV Parks, etc are now where pastures were 3 years ago.

    Onward Through The Fog

  • I'm usually pretty optomistic by nature; but I've been selling the past three months and finally have broken down and started buying GLD. The arguments in "The Currency Wars" were just too compelling.

  • I'm still trying to figure out how Obama gets even one vote in 2012. His ideas are not working.

    I've come to the realization that I will never understand how a person born in this country would rather have hand outs than economic freedom.

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  • JeezGuy

    People like him and Romney is running a blah campaign so far. Its easier to sit on your ass playing vids and blaming others for things not happening for you. i have seen incredibly intelligent people getting nowhere because they are lazy and others who are the real definition of the Peter Principle succeed because of the work they put in. As always it will come down to indys and a few states.

  • I remember sitting down for a long night of watching returns in 1980. I thought the same back then. How could Carter get reelected?

    10 minutes into the broadcast, it was announced that Reagan had won the election. What? It was over before it started. The country had come to its senses. Iran was a big issue but several people didn't like the economic direction the country was taking.

    It doesn't feel that way this year. People seem to WANT stuff they didn't earn. They will do their best to keep the gravy train rolling.

    Sad really.

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