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With the Maryland-Rutgers move, what happens to Texas?

  • Simple numbers. The average Big 10 school is projected to make around $43 million in tier 1, 2 and 3 revenue by 2017. See attached link below that was used for the Maryland move to the Big 10. Compare that to the Big 12, which will average around $20 million per team per year for tier 1 and 2 for the next 13 years. Add in UT's tier 3 income from LHN, which is under $15 million per year given our need to split some economics with IMG. That's less than $35 million for UT. The economics for tier 1, 2, and 3 just don't look great from this perspective. Purdue and Northwestern would make more than UT for tier 1, 2 and 3. And it looks even less appealing for the other 9 members of the conference. Now the Big 12 has the potential to boost these numbers with the addition of a CCG but that would require expansion. The Sugar Bowl income is a wash given the Big 10 also has the same economics for the Rose Bowl.

    The Big 12 needs more real estate (population/geography) and one or two marque properties (FSU/VTech) to stay competitive.

    Maryland can make nearly $100 million more in Big Ten by 2020 - Pete Thamel - SI.com

    The University of Maryland stands to make nearly $100 million more in conference revenue by 2020 with its switch from the ACC to the Big Ten, according to projected revenue information presented to the school by Big Ten commissioner Jim Delany, SI.com has learned.

    sportsillustrated.cnn.com

    Jackdaddy

  • VaHorn said...

    When you add the Bowl Championship payout, the Big 12 payout is at the top of the scale. We are the only league that will allow independent tier 3 deals. I see that as a strength not a weakness. Kentucky gets the same revenue as Alabama. Baylor doesn't get the same as Texas. If you are Notre Dame, which do you prefer? Each conference has long term contracts. There will be wild imbalances as a new contact is signed. The PAC 10 teams were earning $7 million per year at the end of their last contract. It jumped to $20 million+ when they signed the new one. That $20 million will look worse than the old contract at the tail end of the new one.

    Good points, but another unknown that you claim is a strength is that we allow independent tier 3 deals. The lack of a conference network is why the Big XII isn't in a hurry to expand. The existence of the conference networks for others is both their current appeal to potential members and their motivation for expanding.

    The question is - are these models going to be more like Robin Hood with the big programs subsidizing the weak ones, or will combining all result in a "sum is greater than the parts" result?

    If it's the former then how can these huge conferences be viable over the long haul? At some point Ohio State will get sick of subsidizing programs like Purdue and Maryland and want to keep more of what they contribute.

    The Dog

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    Jackdaddy

  • maceoa9903 said...

    I'm afraid the SEC may play hard ball with us and only invite Oklahoma and go East (VT or NC State) for the other team to get to 16. They already have the Texas footprint with A&M now.

    A&M is not the Texas footprint like Texas is the Texas footprint.

    cmhoover

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    The Dog

  • Darren Rovell pointed out that the game story on Rutgers going to 9-1 was the 19th story on the NY Post sports page. They are an also-ran that no one cares about. I guarantee you that utsal and I follow Rutgers a lot more than anyone else on this board.

    No one has answered my question. Has anyone's opinion actually changed by yesterday's events? The answer, of course, is no. Those that were unhappy with Texas in a 10 team conference with no aspirations for immediate expansion two days ago are still unhappy today and have a new talking point.

    I personally don't feel strongly either way, but certainly don't think the landscape has changed dramatically this week. What I do feel strongly about is anyone that thinks they know for sure that bigger is necessarily better is kidding themselves. It's all speculation at this point. If superleagues were the only way to go, why hasn't Notre Dame joined a conference?

    DLev

  • I completely and totally disagree. There really are no disadvantages to Texas staying in a 10 team Big XII than If they joined another league. They would have to fight through all the same politics if they were 11-1 in the lame Big 10 as they will currently. Besides, just win all your damn games and it is all moot.

    Additionally, the Big XII has made it virtually impossible for any team to leave due to the giving over of TV rights money for the next decade. No team can leave under that scenario.

    This post was edited by BiggdanTX on 11/20/2012 at 11:25 AM

    BiggdanTX

  • The answer is quite obvious. ND has not joined a conference, because they know they will have a spot in almost any scenario. They are the prettiest girl in school and can wait until the day before prom to pick their date.

    Codaxx

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    BobbyBurton

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    BobbyBurton

  • BiggdanTX said...

    I completely and totally disagree. There really are no disadvantages to Texas staying in a 10 team Big XII than If they joined another league. They would have to fight through all the same politics if they were 11-1 in the lame Big 10 as they will currently. Besides, just win all your damn games and it is all moot.

    Additionally, the Big XII has made it virtually impossible for any team to leave due to the giving over of TV rights money for the next decade. No team can leave under that scenario.

    No disadvantages today? Correct

    No disadvantages in the future? Unlikely if Big 12 stays status quo.

    This post was edited by BobbyBurton on 11/20/2012 at 11:38 AM

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    BobbyBurton

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    mcwast

  • bierce said...

    I'm afraid that I find it hard to believe that Texas has been acting altruistically over the last few years rather than primarily in pursuit of its own interests.

    In-frickin-deed.

    “Kansas may wind up number one in these polls, but that would be so unfair to Texas...” -- Len Elmore, 2/13/11

    Bob in Houston

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    WildBill71

  • If the B12 doesnt expand, its screwed. It has to get teams and get them now or become the next BigEast conference. A conference network would sure be nice right now.

    There is nothing more dangerous in this world than a man with nothing to lose.

    bruthaman

  • DLev said...

    Darren Rovell pointed out that the game story on Rutgers going to 9-1 was the 19th story on the NY Post sports page. They are an also-ran that no one cares about. I guarantee you that utsal and I follow Rutgers a lot more than anyone else on this board.

    No one has answered my question. Has anyone's opinion actually changed by yesterday's events? The answer, of course, is no. Those that were unhappy with Texas in a 10 team conference with no aspirations for immediate expansion two days ago are still unhappy today and have a new talking point.

    I personally don't feel strongly either way, but certainly don't think the landscape has changed dramatically this week. What I do feel strongly about is anyone that thinks they know for sure that bigger is necessarily better is kidding themselves. It's all speculation at this point. If superleagues were the only way to go, why hasn't Notre Dame joined a conference?

    I think things are not mutually exclusive. I've been a proponent of expansion for the "right" schools all along. I understand the underwhelming nature of the Big 12's geographic and institutional footprint. I just feel we, as a conference, are going to be in a weak position sometime in the short to medium term if we stand still. At the same time I do think the move by the Big 10 provides new info. One, there is a desire by the richest conference to expand and two, the ACC is still highly vulnerable, especially if the exit fee is reduced. These details tell me (1) what the Big 12 will be competing against (large conference up north with a lot of money) and (2) the weak position of a competitor.

    Jackdaddy

  • The situation is complex. There are powers as well as Powers over DeLoss. I still lick the wounds of not getting UT into the SEC when we merged with the 8 eight. (I worked as a lobbyist then and was in the room for much of the close door discussion). I know that I would love for UT to be in the SEC and I accept that many on this board would want us in the Pacten or whatever conference could be created to compete with the SEC. We have few if any media centers to compete for national exposure. ND and the big 10 has Chicago, the SEC has Atlanta, the Pacten -LA.

    I have no solution that I believe is obtainable.

    signature image signature image signature image

    You shall know the truth and the truth shall make you free. Never trust a man who only knows how to spell a word one way. Andrew Jackson

    JFrankWebb

  • utsal said...

    I would respectfully ask that this thread which is about the future of the conference and all the programs not devolve into a Mack bashing/defending pissing match. It serves no purpose and is in every other thread on the board. Even the most fervent Mack defenders don't expect him to remain the coach for much longer and this is about the future of all the programs so it is really irrelevant to the conversation.

    I would respectfully ask for you not to tell me what the hell to post. Don't like my post, there are two options for you. Downvote it or ignore me, but don't tell me what I can and can't post in a particular thread. Besides that, it was a response to someone else who brought up Mack.

    maceoa9903

  • mdmost said...

    Bobby really needs to come back and answer how to get around the GOR.

    I'm not a lawyer but my experience tells me where there's a will there's a way. Surely the Texas athletic dept had some foresight that they may want to get out of the deal.

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    BobbyBurton

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    The Dog

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    signature image signature image signature image

    clacknasty

  • maceoa9903 said...

    I would respectfully ask for you not to tell me what the hell to post. Don't like my post, there are two options for you. Downvote it or ignore me, but don't tell me what I can and can't post in a particular thread. Besides that, it was a response to someone else who brought up Mack.

    Was directed at both of you, and more at the original post than yours. You just happened to be the last one so it quoted you. You're right, I should have quoted the first guy. That said, you can feel free to ignore my request as I'm not a mod or the board police. If you want to take the thread in a different direction, feel free to try, and I have just as much of a right to attempt to keep the conversation that everyone else is having going.

    Luckily the rest of the people responding on the thread have had the sense to realize that this issue has nothing to do with Mack and talking about him here is counterproductive to the reasonable conversation that is taking place related to the issue of conference expansion and Texas' future. I got a number of upvotes for my suggestion because many people are tired of every thread turning into the pro-mack vs. anti-mack crowd.

    utsal

  • Lots of good perspectives on this thread

    TimmyLonghorn

  • BobbyBurton said...

    I'm not a lawyer but my experience tells me where there's a will there's a way. Surely the Texas athletic dept had some foresight that they may want to get out of the deal.

    That's the point of a GOR, so there's not a way to back out. If it's signed, they're going to have to make the Big 12 work for a decade-plus

    VillageHorn

  • We aren't going to the SEC. aggy would stop that move instantly. Whether we like it or not, aggy believes that they are about to lock up Texas recruiting and become the most important school in the state. They would never agree to return to the days of playing second fiddle in the state.

    If the Big 12 doesn't immediately jump in and invite FSU, Clemson and Louisville they can look forward to becoming the Big East.

    Folks, to the rest of the nation Texas and Oklahoma are just two more schools...nothing important. The rest of the Big 12 rate even less stature.

    Winning would change that perception but in today's society, it is all about last weekend. See Johonny Football for the perfect example.

    rosessmellgreat