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srr50 said...
As with most changes lately in college football the Big 10 move was about fear and greed.
Fear at having Notre Dame stick its toes into the ACC and where that might lead, and greed in seeing an opportunity to increase by millions its third tier money.
I think Delany was caught off guard by the Notre Dame move and it pissed him off. I believe the Big 10 is trying to gut both the Big East and the ACC. Well they simply put the final knife in the Big East. Taking Rutgers will set off another chain of events. I'm surprised that the ACC hasn't already announced Connecticut as the replacement for Maryland -- they desperately tried to go with Pittsburgh and Syracuse.
Getting Maryland may not be their last attempt at raiding the ACC. Weakening the league that Notre Dame is dancing with is a win-win for the Big 10.
Financially it will bring in a lot of money to the Big 10 Network, which will now be able to claim 35% of the nation's population as home to Big 10 schools. They don't give a damn if Rutgers is on Page 9 of the N.Y. Times.
They do care very much that the Big 10 Network now move on to the basic cable tier in these markets and that means monthly subscription fees from a much larger number of viewers. There are a lot of Big 10 grads and fans in the New York and Washington D.C area who will pick up the network for a nominal fee (instead of a monthly premium price) and that money goes straight to the conference.
Fox just bought the Yankees regional sports network (YES), and they are a major investor in the Big 10 Network. Now they will be a partner with the Big 10 in distributing and selling the Big 10 Network.
They aren't done. Delany wants the Big 10 to be the first Super Conference and the general consensus is that there will be four. Market forces may dictate something else, but there are a lot of smart people in both media and college football who believe that this is where we are headed.
If that is the case, the Big Ten, the SEC and the Pac 12 are in. That leaves the ACC and the Big 12 playing musical chairs for the last seat at the big boy table.
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mjcarlisle2525 said...
Ohio State fan here, I think you hit it right on the head! Texas and OU to the SEC would clearly be the best conf. hands down. Lots of egos but possible with the way things are heading. We are hearing that FSU and Clemson are most likely heading you're way, everything is speculation to this point. We as B10 fans would love The Horns and Sooners too! Got to know many Horns fans through the Fire Dept and those recent games, great FANS!
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bruthaman said...
If the B12 doesnt: 1) get at least two out of Clemson, FSU, GT, VT or Louisville. IMO, FSU is a must get. FSU and CLEM would be perfect and 2) work to get a conference network, this conference is toast. Not one but both need to happen for this conference to be one of the top four.
The goal of Bowlsby should be to get us to no less than 12 schools that have good football history. If he can get 14 then thatll work too. Worry about divisions later, but soon, there wont be anyone else to get and no matter how poeple want to paint it, we wont have as big a voice at the table when seeding discussions take place without playing a killer OOC.
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81horn said...
I'm not trying to go political here but the UT men's athletic program reminds me of the Republican Party. Controlled by a bunch if over weight, out of touch white guys that need to step aside for the good of the program but can't because of excessive pride, thirst for relevance/power, and ego.
This post was edited by Danno2 on 11/22/2012 at 9:02 AM
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Racer X said...
I think you have to accept two premises: 1. The Big Ten, SEC, and Pac-12 are here to stay and they will be generating an ever-growing revenue base thanks to there conference-owned cable TV networks. Thus, there will only be room for one more major conference. 2. The Big XII has no way to expand WITHOUT making it geographically challenging and marginally impactful on the bottom line economics.
I agree that there are very few schools that add to the share of the pie if the Big XII were to expand (ND and FSU). That's it. So, if you look at schools for expansion individually, you're correct that there are precious few reasons to add almost any schools. However, the issue here is the collective, not the individual. Collectively, the Big Ten and SEC are likely to generate TWICE as much TV revenue as all Big XII teams (sans, Texas due to the LHN). This creates a huge competitive gap for the Big XII. If our schools are getting $20mm total from TV revenue, while the Big Ten schools are projected to be at $43mm by the year 2017, you begin to see the problem.
So, in my mind, that leaves Texas with three broad choices: 1. Join one of the three existing viable conferences - Pac-12, SEC, Big Ten. All have their pluses and minuses. 2. Merge the Big XII with the remnants of the ACC to form the 4th "super" conference (possibly for football ONLY) 3. Indepedent - Sorry, can't see this one being viable in a world of ever-growing playoffs and bowl-conference tie-ins.
Staying the in Big XII may be the best option TODAY (in isolation), but is it an option that's even going to be available in 5 years (when other conferences are doubling your revenue and you're trying to be competitive with them)? Doubtful it's even an option.
Ironically, this is very similar to how the Big XII was formed in the first place in 1995 - two conferences that were not going to be economically competitive on their own in a new economic landscape (Big 8 and SWC) merged to form a competitive new conference (Big XII). Now, we may be looking at further consolidation for the same reasons, and we may have the same economic vulnerabilities as 1995.
InsightTexas
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81horn said...
I'm not trying to go political here but the UT men's athletic program reminds me of the Republican Party. Controlled by a bunch if over weight, out of touch white guys that need to step aside for the good of the program but can't because of excessive pride, thirst for relevance/power, and ego.
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sundancekid
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Danno2 said...
Except for the point above, I don't disagree with anything you said. I don't know the man personally, but Dodds strikes me as someone who is always about maximizing revenue so I suspect the scenarios you discussed are not lost on anyone at UT, OU, the Big 12 offices, or anywhere else for that matter. The conference re-alignment games and the BCS system (present and future) are all about maximizing television revenue. The difficulty lies in how to maximize revenue without damaging the value of the product generating that revenue. Bowlsby seems to be someone who has the skill set to do that and still navigate the political minefield (both inside and outside the conference) to get there. Time will tell.
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sundancekid said...
I fully expect for the Big whateverweare to pull in some new members but I find it humorous that Maryland and Rutgers make any difference at all in conference schematics except by weakening the collective strength of schedule for the Big whatevertheyare. No doubt Deloss is in this for the revenue. He's done a damn good job of it. I hope for Florida State first and foremost, followed by Georgia Tech and perhaps North Carolina. These constant disruptions in conference memberships is really screwing up college football. What is tradition anyway? Happy Thanksgiving!
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sundancekid said...
I fully expect for the Big whateverweare to pull in some new members but I find it humorous that Maryland and Rutgers make any difference at all in conference schematics except by weakening the collective strength of schedule for the Big whatevertheyare. No doubt Deloss is in this for the revenue. He's done a damn good job of it. I hope for Florida State first and foremost, followed by Georgia Tech and perhaps North Carolina. These constant disruptions in conference memberships is really screwing up college football. What is tradition anyway? Happy Thanksgiving!
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With the Maryland-Rutgers move, what happens to Texas?