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close to jumping
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maninblack1
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close to jumping said...
Looking at classes put together in the relative recent past, 2010-2013, a trend appears to have emerged that has me scratching my head. By my cursory review of both the classes and the targeting, it seems that Texas has made what almost feels like a conscious decision to abandon the greater Houston area in recruiting.
"But closetojumping, how could you say such a thing!!!?!!?"
Well, primarily because it appears to be true. Look at the data.
In 2010, Texas signed 25 players. 4 of those players hail from the greater Houston area - Cotton, Daniels, Hopkins, Wood - that's 1 starter, 2 transfers (Wood is going to be the starter at CU, I believe), and 1 guy who appears to be iffy to ever do anything.
In 2011, Texas signed 22 players. 7 of those players hail from the greater Houston area. - Diggs, Evans, Flowers, Greenlea, Jackson, Reed, Scott - that's 3 starters, 3 solid early contributors who may become starters, and 1 guy who apparently is iffy to hang on.
In 2012, Texas signed 27 players. 6 of those players hail from the greater Houston area. - Brown, Cole (both from Brenham, which is a reach to call 'greater Houston area', but I'm being charitable), Blueitt (Beaumont is GHA? again, charity here), Boyette, Estelle, Johnson - it is too early to tell, but this group includes some of the best talent from the recent class.
In 2013, Texas has 15 commitments. 2 of those players are from the greater Houston area. - D Davis, Warrick.
Beyond the 2013 commitments, there are a couple of other targets. RSJ was a commitment, he's still a target. I consider Sealy part of Houston, but even that is somewhat questionable. Benenoch is from Katy. Prevot is in Houston. Parker is from Houston. That's about it. Maurice Smith was a target, as was Ford, so there are a couple of others who have at least heard from UT.
Beyond who is still a target, consider that on Junior Day 1, if my glance at a list is accurate, Texas had 2 guys from Houston on the invite list - RSJ and Keith Ford. That's it. They didn't even offer Prevot, Warrick, Smith or D Davis until after Junior Day 2. The other targets they're on are of late, and those guys, not surprisingly, aren't as excited about Texas at this stage as some other schools.
I'd be interested in hearing someone at a minimum argue the basic numbers. Texas has signed/committed 21% of its past 4 classes from "Houston". Let me help you with some arguments that won't work, so we can save ourselves some time.
"Houston isn't producing as much talent lately."
Incorrect. This point isn't even worth the dignity of a thorough response. Houston is one of the most talent-rich areas for football players in the entire country, which is why every other school in the damned nation is throwing bodies at trying to recruit the city. LSU and ATM are running amok down here. OU is having success, for goodness sakes. Houston is one of the fastest growing cities in the country with a booming economy, a higher than average black population, and HS football remains a dominant part of the local landscape. The talent is there.
"Houston HS football has been corrupted."
Willie Lyles has an analog in every major city. Nothing has changed in Houston. There are plenty of good, honest players and families looking to sign with the best possible schools.
"Texas doesn't have as strong a brand in the Houston market."
Houston has the highest count of Texas Exes in any city in the world not named Austin. The main competition is ATM, a distant second. LSU has emerged as a relevant brand lately, but not approaching, even remotely, the reach of UT. The professional sports focus is less in Houston than in DFW. The UT brand remains as strong as ever in Vince Young's home town.
"Texas doesn't have the right guys focused on Houston."
Major Applewhite is responsible for half the territory in Houston. Give me a break.
"So what do you think it is, then, CTJ?"
I am glad each of you asked. I think recruiting Houston takes more effort for this staff because none of them are from this city, none of them have ties to this city, and it takes as much time to visit Houston as it does DFW. A ton of the guys on staff have ties to DFW, so they spend more time there. CenTex is worse in that the talent is weaker yet it takes less time driving around Central Texas.
I think East Texas is underrecruited for the same reasons as Houston.
I realize that everyone wants to believe that all old habits are long gone, but I don't believe that the neglect to the Houston market from Mack Brown and his staff justifies folks fully believing that everything is fixed. I realize that this staff busts its ass in recruiting. Well and good. How about busting it in the right places? A little more time in UT's backyard and a little less time gallivanting around the SEC footprint is warranted. If Giles isn't the guy for half the market down here, then change that too. It's past the point of needing attention.
I am interested in counterpoints or alternative issues that I've missed or failed to mention. Hell, tell me that some data point somewhere tells a different story and that the efforts in Houston are perfectly fine. I am willing to hear pretty much anything, but what I'd like to hear is that Mack Brown has been given some smelling salts and is going to cover Houston better in 2014 and beyond.
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ChampKind
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Black Shipley
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JeezGuy
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BuddyHolly
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ZFM_\\m//_504 said...
The only thing I can possibly think of is that possibly the staff wanted to expand it's recruiting base so they could evaluate kids from as many places as possible in order to try to focus on those potential blue chippers from places other than Houston.
2010 - 16%
2011- 32%
2012 - 22%
2013 - 13% ( 19% if RSJ recommits, 24% if Benenoch joins, 27% if Prevot comes in with the previous two, and 32% if Parker joins the previous 3 and no one else commits)At the moment with 13% of the class from GHA it's a pretty severe dropoff from the previous two seasons but even if one of the above 4 guys commits and no one else does then those numbers go up and start trending along with the previous couple of seasons.
BuddyHolly
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Black Shipley said...
Now more than ever the Houston area should be seen as a battleground for the Texas Football staff. With A&M's move to the SEC it looks like they are doing the right (shocking, I know) thing and targeting Houston. LSU will make their presence there even more known than it is already now that aggy opened upon the door to the state with their conference switch. Bama, Arkansas, and plenty others will soon be invading the Houston area, if not already, to get a piece of the pie too.
If LSU and A&M ever schedule a "neutral site" game at Reliant for recruiting purposes, it'll get real interesting.
Great post and topic for discussion ctj.
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BobbyBurton
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Texas Flood ●
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bat said...
Questions like "Why doesn't Texas recruit X?" are always going to be in vogue, whether x is a particular recruit, locale, position, or recruiting style. Such questions presuppose that our recruiting, against the constraints of record and manpower, has been wanting. The simple truth is that Texas is getting basically who we want, by focusing on the places where our returns are the best, and supplementing as needed.
Could we do better? Well, yes. Everyone could. But the last two classes have been basically limited based on our complete staff overhaul, and still we've secured top classes both years, getting mostly who we've wanted.
I think that making the case that diluting the staff's areas in the most talent rich and productive geographies would yield better results is a difficult one, but more power to you.
close to jumping
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ZFM_\\m//_504 said...
The only thing I can possibly think of is that possibly the staff wanted to expand it's recruiting base so they could evaluate kids from as many places as possible in order to try to focus on those potential blue chippers from places other than Houston.
2010 - 16% 2011- 32% 2012 - 22% 2013 - 13% ( 19% if RSJ recommits, 24% if Benenoch joins, 27% if Prevot comes in with the previous two, and 32% if Parker joins the previous 3 and no one else commits)
At the moment with 13% of the class from GHA it's a pretty severe dropoff from the previous two seasons but even if one of the above 4 guys commits and no one else does then those numbers go up and start trending along with the previous couple of seasons.
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BobbyBurton said...
I've written some articles about this in recent months.
I feel like Houston and East Texas are under recruited while the Metroplex and Central Texas are overrecruited. I believe Mack thinks Dallas is more of a battleground area because Oklahoma is so close. I don't subscribe to that argument but I've heard it made.
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Rivver
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BobbyBurton said...
I've written some articles about this in recent months.
I feel like Houston and East Texas are under recruited while the Metroplex and Central Texas are overrecruited. I believe Mack thinks Dallas is more of a battleground area because Oklahoma is so close. I don't subscribe to that argument but I've heard it made.
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BobbyBurton
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Why Is Mack Brown's Texas Staff Ignoring Houston?