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Updated Pipeline, Recruting Odds, Scholy count...

  • Ok. Link for full table is provided.
    Updates: spring practice numbers, latest commits, additional Jr. Visitors, commit probabilities, etc...

    In summary:

    * we show a need for:
    1 FB
    1 WR
    1 OT
    1 DT
    1 DE
    1 DB

    * we have 4 offers outstanding to Texas players:
    RB: 61% Dontre Wilson - no real backup plan if we miss. May tell you something.
    WR: 64% Ra'Shaad Samples - Plan B is Massington, Jefferson, Rhodes
    DT: 54% Justin Manning - Plan B is V. Taylor. Also, Quincy Russell likely returns. Raulerson could convert.
    DE: 64% Torrodney Prevot - Plan B unclear. Maybe Mitchell spinning down, or OOS towards end of year.

    * Dontre doesn't appear to be a "pipeline" need, so that may explain why we don't have a Plan B for him.

    * we have 4 offers outstanding to OOS players, all CB's and S's, for 2 probable scholarships:
    Cole Luke (C)
    Vonn Bell (C)
    Marcell Harris (S)
    Su'a Cravens (S)

    At CB, Plan "B" is A. Davis or Plan "C" C. Collins
    At S, Plan "B" is K. Miles or Plan "C" E. Huhn

    * It appears Akina has the green light for a S and a CB, 2 in all, and that he is playing the odds.

    * we are currently 3 over our scholarship limit, at 88 , not counting attrition.

    * we have up to 8 identifiable "attrition" risks, by playing time and previous history (see yellow on pipeline chart below "Google Docs")

    * we usually have 1 or 2 unexpected academic or rules attrits, each clearing room for additional scholies.

    * 8 offers out, with likelihood of half of them (4) committing, would put us at 92 before attrition

    * If Q. Russell returns in the fall, that puts us at 93. We'd need 8 of the 10 probable attrits to occur by NSD.
    (keep in mind that N. Hughes, although not counting against scholarships in the fall, will count in the spring and against the available total 85 scholarships by NSD).

    * I can see a way for up to 10 attrits, max, between now and NSD for '13 class, but that's really pushing it.

    * I think we'll hold off on additional offers after the next 4 commits and until attrition picture clears up over the course of the year.

    * This would put us at 17 commits (92 scholies) + Russell (93) until more than 8 attrits occur or are foreseen to occur.

    This post has been edited 4 times, most recently by jjloehr on 3/12/2012 at 11:15 PM

    Welcome to Google Docs

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Arrc0h-iEmU0dC1uTUNaWW5TMHJ3ZnhLM3Iwc3hYanc

    docs.google.com

    jjloehr

  • Let me know if you have trouble viewing the Google Doc. Also, remember you can zoom in and zoom out in your browser using Ctrl + and Ctrl - (Command + and Command - on macs)

    jjloehr

  • Very nice analysis. Will be interested to see what it looks like, especially regarding attrition, after dust has settled from spring ball.

    VALonghorn ●

  • VALonghorn said...

    Very nice analysis. Will be interested to see what it looks like, especially regarding attrition, after dust has settled from spring ball.

    Yes, very much so. Several longtooths are adamant that we'll exceed 20 commits. I find it hard to believe we'll have that much attrition personally. That's more than one dropout or kickoff-team per semester, plus all the guys not getting playing time also have to leave.

    It's just hard for me to see that much happening, but what do I know...

    jjloehr

  • Thanks for the time it takes to set this up and to maintain it. You always add a quality post every time you post this. Our senior class is shocking. That says everything you need to say about past recruiting and development and why we are in the mess we are in.
    Should be four times that many starting seniors had better evaluation and development been done. The positive is that graduation won't hurt us much, but with few graduating attrition has to come from elsewhere.
    You really need to correct the weight on Kyle Hicks. He's been at 192 for quite some time.
    +1 for a very succinct chart.

    TexasBlackjack

  • Thanks for the hard work!

    Flounder32

  • Bobby - You need to comp this fella's membership.
    Thanks JJ

    Onward Through The Fog

    Rambo


  • that's impressive. that's an awfully high # for attrtion. i'm of the opinion high attrition is a bad thing at this point. particularly if it's from younger players.

    TexAus

  • jjloehr said...

    Ok. Link for full table is provided. Updates: spring practice numbers, latest commits, additional Jr. Visitors, commit probabilities, etc...

    In summary:

    * we show a need for: 1 FB 1 WR 1 OT 1 DT 1 DE 1 DB

    * we have 4 offers outstanding to Texas players: RB: 61% Dontre Wilson - no real backup plan if we miss. May tell you something. WR: 64% Ra'Shaad Samples - Plan B is Massington, Jefferson, Rhodes DT: 54% Justin Manning - Plan B is V. Taylor. Also, Quincy Russell likely returns. Raulerson could convert. DE: 64% Torrodney Prevot - Plan B unclear. Maybe Mitchell spinning down, or OOS towards end of year.

    * Dontre doesn't appear to be a "pipeline" need, so that may explain why we don't have a Plan B for him.

    * we have 4 offers outstanding to OOS players, all CB's and S's, for 2 probable scholarships: Cole Luke (C) Vonn Bell (C) Marcell Harris (S) Su'a Cravens (S)

    At CB, Plan "B" is A. Davis or Plan "C" C. Collins At S, Plan "B" is K. Miles or Plan "C" E. Huhn

    * It appears Akina has the green light for a S and a CB, 2 in all, and that he is playing the odds.

    * we are currently 3 over our scholarship limit, at 88 , not counting attrition.

    * we have up to 8 identifiable "attrition" risks, by playing time and previous history (see yellow on pipeline chart below "Google Docs")

    * we usually have 1 or 2 unexpected academic or rules attrits, each clearing room for additional scholies.

    * 8 offers out, with likelihood of half of them (4) committing, would put us at 92 before attrition

    * If Q. Russell returns in the fall, that puts us at 93. We'd need 8 of the 10 probable attrits to occur by NSD. (keep in mind that N. Hughes, although not counting against scholarships in the fall, will count in the spring and against the available total 85 scholarships by NSD).

    * I can see a way for up to 10 attrits, max, between now and NSD for '13 class, but that's really pushing it.

    * I think we'll hold off on additional offers after the next 4 commits and until attrition picture clears up over the course of the year.

    * This would put us at 17 commits (92 scholies) + Russell (93) until more than 8 attrits occur or are foreseen to occur.

    I really like these. Nice work. +1

    bat

  • Extremely well versed as always J. The attrition number is high but probably in line with the mentality of the current members of the coaching staff. There has definitely been a line drawn in the sand. Quite frankly, I like it. One can look at even mediocre teams throughout D1 that measure up to the competition and pull out victories when, according to the odds and numbers, they should not. Most have a "my way or the highway" attitude within the coaching staff and it permeates to the entire team.

    Devils Cut

  • Rambo said...

    Bobby - You need to comp this fella's membership. Thanks JJ

    This.

    ;)

    jjloehr

  • TexasBlackjack said...

    Thanks for the time it takes to set this up and to maintain it. You always add a quality post every time you post this. Our senior class is shocking. That says everything you need to say about past recruiting and development and why we are in the mess we are in. Should be four times that many starting seniors had better evaluation and development been done. The positive is that graduation won't hurt us much, but with few graduating attrition has to come from elsewhere. You really need to correct the weight on Kyle Hicks. He's been at 192 for quite some time. +1 for a very succinct chart.

    Thanks!

    Yes, our Sr class has been decimated with attrition. It is quite the contrast to see them side by side with the next class, Sr's of '13.

    ---------------------- Recruiting Class ------------------------------------
    Result --- 2008 ----- 2009 ----- 2010------ 2011 ----- Grand Total
    ATTRIT----- 7 ---------10 ----------- 6 ---------- 1 --------------- 24
    HIT --------- 7----------- 4 ---------- 13 -------- 17 -------------- 41
    MISS------- 6 ----------- 6 ---------- 5 ---------- 4 --------------- 21
    Total ------- 20--------- 20 ---------- 24 -------- 22--------------- 86

    This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by jjloehr on 3/13/2012 at 8:58 AM

    jjloehr

  • Don't be surprised if there are not 3-4 attritions before summer...The proverbial sit down meetings between position coaches and coordinators will happen with each player shortly after Spring practice is complete. The numbers always seem to take care of themselves and not in a "head in a guillotine" type fashion like at Alabama...

    signature image signature image signature image

    Bandit18

  • Bandit18 said...

    Don't be surprised if there are not 3-4 attritions before summer...The proverbial sit down meetings between position coaches and coordinators will happen with each player shortly after Spring practice is complete. The numbers always seem to take care of themselves and not in a "head in a guillotine" type fashion like at Alabama...

    They need to average almost 1 per month through the end of the season. I know there will be some in May, then a couple or so in Aug, then in January seems to be the trend...

    jjloehr

  • TexasBlackjack said...

    ... You really need to correct the weight on Kyle Hicks. He's been at 192 for quite some time. +1 for a very succinct chart.

    done. pulled that in from the LSR. Rivals has him at 190 now, 247 at 192...

    jjloehr

  • Tex(Aus) said...

    that's impressive. that's an awfully high # for attrtion. i'm of the opinion high attrition is a bad thing at this point. particularly if it's from younger players.

    yeah, I don't like it either. Wish we could recruit better and/or develop better. I guess part of it has got to be missing effort by those guys in the weight room and/or working on their technique. Still, it'd be nice if we could keep it lower...

    jjloehr

  • jjloehr said...

    They need to average almost 1 per month through the end of the season. I know there will be some in May, then a couple or so in Aug, then in January seems to be the trend...

    Someone messaged me a clarification on the timing:

    "We need to get to 85 by Aug. 1, 2013. The players that sign a LOI on NSD do not count against the 85 until they either enroll in the Spring or until Aug. 1, 2013. That gives us Spring practice 2013 and summer 2013 for more attrition."

    This gives us more breathing room for sure.

    jjloehr

  • Good work and always a fun read. I am not sure it is a slam dunk that Quincy Russell has a scholly even if he gets his grades in order. If I remember correctly Tollenson gave the original offer and I have to think that if Bo Davis is not on board Russell may have to look elsewhere.

    Hookem89 ●

  • Hookem89 said...

    Good work and always a fun read. I am not sure it is a slam dunk that Quincy Russell has a scholly even if he gets his grades in order. If I remember correctly Tollenson gave the original offer and I have to think that if Bo Davis is not on board Russell may have to look elsewhere.

    good point. reports had him showing up to some practices and chatting it up with Sally Brown. Maybe she has a scholly or two to give...

    jjloehr

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