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Realignment discussion

  • sendrain said...

    Bobby, Excellent summary of a very complex set of issues. Nobody knows what is really going on behind closed doors or in Dodds head. I, for one, trust him to get Texas in the best position for future realignment. I think you did an excellent job of laying out what appear to be realistic what-ifs. Anyone that thinks they know more about what is really going on - or the reasons things have happened previously - is blowing smoke. And the harder they blow, the more ridiculous they make themselves look.

    You can see one thing that is going on and it is the PR machine. This is the first time someone discussed travel for the students as an issue, compared to a 10 team conference being an easier path to the championship game.

    CelinaHorn

  • BobbyBurton said...

    CTJ, I enjoy your posts. Always.

    But all of these issues are not necessarily entwined.

    Texas' position 2 years ago is different than what it was 1 year ago and what it is today. The only position that hasn't changed is that Texas will do what makes the most financial sense so long as its student-athletes are not disadvantaged by over-traveling.

    Getting back to 10 teams got them to where they needed to be for Fox/ABC/ESPN. Beyond that, there's not a large enough financial incentive for Texas to move beyond 10 right now, not when the idea of a Texas-Notre Dame annual contest could be the blockbuster of college football.

    Texas is willing to extend beyond 10 teams, and Texas thinks highly of Florida State and Clemson, but only if if makes Texas more money.

    The conference championship game alone would help increase conference payouts.

    As far as posturing, there is definitely a lot of that going on at multiple levels and at multiple places, whether it's at the conference level, school level or even at other conferences. I don't pretend to know all the machinations everywhere but I do speak with people who understand the scenarios and where they are currently placing their cards.


    The issues are all connected and affecting one another. I believe that is how chaos works, What was certain a week ago is up in the air now. Regardless, some issues will not change. Expansion is good for Texas with quality teams in quality locations. I expanded on that in the response to ut755 as well. I don't believe for a second that Texas wants to sit and collect a paycheck in the 10 team Big 12 when they have quality talent knocking down the door to join.

    I will make a bet with you that when FSU and Clemson are announced as joining the conference, when the dust settles, Dodds and other Texas folks will be publicly citing how it is not about the money, but it is about brand-building, attractive other markets, and competing with the SEC in the SE footprint. They'll probably throw-in something about both being esteemed institutions of higher learning, etc. So yeah, it will be about the money. It will also, for once, be about the other things they cite for being excited about the additions as well.

    close to jumping

  • TulsaHorn said...

    So, just to be clear on this - you have the exact correct pulse on the situation.

    Based on reading the internet? Your "inside source"

    Or just your bullshit postering?

    Don't believe he said he had a source. While Bobby is correct that things are different from two years ago and last year, but Dodds isn't talking two years ago, he's talking now.

    And now, as CTJ points out, the B12 is not in a great position with the SEC because the SEC realized that the B12 has 10 great schools and doesn't need to help themselves. It is foolish to think that the SEC suddenly (relatively speaking) dumped the ACC for the B12 because of what the B12 is today.

    There is far too much smoke from other places to make me think that Texas is planning to stop expansion. I'm sure they could. They might. But it flies in the face of everything that has happened.

    As I noted elsewhere, the Pac discussions happened much too quickly to fall into place neatly. This wave has been building from several directions for well over a month, and the core of the story hasn't changed, as regards FSU and Clemson.

    “Kansas may wind up number one in these polls, but that would be so unfair to Texas...” -- Len Elmore, 2/13/11

    Bob in Houston

  • CelinaHorn said...

    You can see one thing that is going on and it is the PR machine. This is the first time someone discussed travel for the students as an issue, compared to a 10 team conference being an easier path to the championship game.


    Let's not forget that this is the same PR machine that claimed that the price of jet fuel going up was part of the reason for canceling the Hawaii game in 2000-ish. Whatever decisions that are made, the athletes' travel regimen will not be a part of the reason why things worked out the way they did. It's utterly ridiculous. They've already signed WVU, they already have to go to ISU. A 2 hour flight east is not any different.

    close to jumping

  • The only bet I will make on conference realignment is that some of you will be right, some of you will be wrong, some of you will crow I told you so and others will be beat on for not having a clue. Other than that everything is crystal clear.

    But yeah, in the end, i think they expand.

    signature image signature image signature image

    A. Morgan. USWNT

    JeezGuy

  • sendrain said...

    Bobby, Excellent summary of a very complex set of issues. Nobody knows what is really going on behind closed doors or in Dodds head. I, for one, trust him to get Texas in the best position for future realignment. I think you did an excellent job of laying out what appear to be realistic what-ifs. Anyone that thinks they know more about what is really going on - or the reasons things have happened previously - is blowing smoke. And the harder they blow, the more ridiculous they make themselves look.


    What I find dumbfounding is that some of you guys read guys like me and our thoughts on Dodds and you somehow think I don't like or trust the guy. I think the guy is a wizard. I too think things are complex. I just don't sit around and pant and parrot whatever new position it is that he and his crew are throwing out there to the media and the fanbase. It's fine if you just want to lap it up, but there are plenty of folks who like to think about it for themselves and who find some obvious flaws in the positions being espoused which discredits the PR machine's whole position. How evil and bad fan-ish of those who do that.

    close to jumping

  • close to jumping said...

    Let's not forget that this is the same PR machine that claimed that the price of jet fuel going up was part of the reason for canceling the Hawaii game in 2000-ish. Whatever decisions that are made, the athletes' travel regimen will not be a part of the reason why things worked out the way they did. It's utterly ridiculous. They've already signed WVU, they already have to go to ISU. A 2 hour flight east is not any different.

    I agree. I thought it sounded a little scared to say they were against realignment because a championship game made it more difficult.

    CelinaHorn

  • Good discussion guys. I really think the key to expansion here is Notre Dame. Deloss has been courting them for almost two years and it seems like if there is a window to negotiate, it's going to come down to what it will take to align the Big XII with Notre Dame in some capacity. If I am one of the schools looking to expand, I would sell Deloss and others on doing what it takes to have ND in the fold.

    Let's assume, for arguments sake, the playoff scenario is either the four highest ranked teams or some sort of hybrid model that involves conference champions and a wildcard. Therefore, Notre Dame will not be forced to join a conference and can still remain independent in football.

    I think it would be totally asisine for Notre Dame to move it's non-football sports into the Big XII as it is today and remain independent in football with some sort of three, four, or six team scheduling agreement. I can't see ND wanting to go through the headache of moving out of the Big East and ending relationships and decent rivalries to (as well as travel schedules which are significant for the non rev sports) for what we have in the Big XII today. Bball games with KU and WVU might be appealing and baseball might provide a few intriguing matchups with BU and UT but that's about it. Even more absurd is thinking ND will commit to any scheduling alliances in football with the way the conference is shaped. WVU? Eh, maybe. OU and UT would certainly be intriguing but both schools are alreaday on ND's non conference schedule anyway. And if you did a mix of WVA, UT,and Baylor? Bleh. That scenario does not provide a win/win situation for everyone invovled IMO. It's time to court ND with a bigger prize.

    Let's assume you move to 12 teams. Either adding FSU and Clemson or FSU and Gtech. Now, that might peak ND's interest a little more. The non-football sports are a little more palpable and I think they would be inclined to commit to maybe a four game scheduling alliance in football. Two teams in each division. That would certainly benefit the conference, ND, and the tv partners. For example, you could have an agreement for ND to play the following from the Big 12: UT, BU (or TCU) in a home and away series and then a WVU/Gtech in a home and away series. Then, you set up a home/away series with OU/Tech and then KU and FSU on some years. That creates balance and actually makes a lot of sense for all parties invovled (TV networks, ND, and schools in the Big XII). Now you have something cooking.

    Moving on, my dream scenario would involve going big and going bold. Move to 14 teams in the conference and have ND commit to a six game schedule. Three teams from each division every year. If you added the right teams, it would be a home run for everyone in the league. Let's assume you add FSU, Gtech, Clemson and Maryland. Have ND commit to a six team schedule that would look like this one year for Notre Dame:

    UT
    TCU (or BU)
    Okie state (or Tech)
    Gtech
    Clemson
    WVU

    And this another year:
    OU
    BU
    Tech
    Maryland
    FSU
    KU (Or maybe you keep Gtech as a protected game)

    Now that's real. Those are some great matchups for ND, the other individual schools, the TV networks and the conference as a whole. It allows for enough balance as well as natural rivals and decent travel schedules in geographic terms.

    I would also allow Notre Dame to showcase their games vs teams like Tech, Baylor and TCU in Jerry World, Reliant or the Alamo Dome to provide a larger venue in areas of Texas with more talent allowing ND to have more of a presence in Texas and the deep from a recruiting standpoint. You could even put a ND vs KU game in arrowhead. This will help build their brand across the most talent rich states year in and year out and put ND in a position to compete for a top 4 spot in the playoffs. Finally, they would still be able to keep their rivalries with Navy, USC, and the Michigan schools if they were so inclinced. There is NO way this wouldn't be BIG BIG BIG $$$ and a tremendous success. This would allow our conference to build its brand instantly in the most compelling way.

    Bill Stickers

  • Bill Stickers said...

    Good discussion guys. I really think the key to expansion here is Notre Dame. Deloss has been courting them for almost two years and it seems like if there is a window to negotiate, it's going to come down to what it will take to align the Big XII with Notre Dame in some capacity. If I am one of the schools looking to expand, I would sell Deloss and others on doing what it takes to have ND in the fold.

    Let's assume, for arguments sake, the playoff scenario is either the four highest ranked teams or some sort of hybrid model that involves conference champions and a wildcard. Therefore, Notre Dame will not be forced to join a conference and can still remain independent in football.

    I think it would be totally asisine for Notre Dame to move it's non-football sports into the Big XII as it is today and remain independent in football with some sort of three, four, or six team scheduling agreement. I can't see ND wanting to go through the headache of moving out of the Big East and ending relationships and decent rivalries to (as well as travel schedules which are significant for the non rev sports) for what we have in the Big XII today. Bball games with KU and WVU might be appealing and baseball might provide a few intriguing matchups with BU and UT but that's about it. Even more absurd is thinking ND will commit to any scheduling alliances in football with the way the conference is shaped. WVU? Eh, maybe. OU and UT would certainly be intriguing but both schools are alreaday on ND's non conference schedule anyway. And if you did a mix of WVA, UT,and Baylor? Bleh. That scenario does not provide a win/win situation for everyone invovled IMO. It's time to court ND with a bigger prize.

    Let's assume you move to 12 teams. Either adding FSU and Clemson or FSU and Gtech. Now, that might peak ND's interest a little more. The non-football sports are a little more palpable and I think they would be inclined to commit to maybe a four game scheduling alliance in football. Two teams in each division. That would certainly benefit the conference, ND, and the tv partners. For example, you could have an agreement for ND to play the following from the Big 12: UT, BU (or TCU) in a home and away series and then a WVU/Gtech in a home and away series. Then, you set up a home/away series with OU/Tech and then KU and FSU on some years. That creates balance and actually makes a lot of sense for all parties invovled (TV networks, ND, and schools in the Big XII). Now you have something cooking.

    Moving on, my dream scenario would involve going big and going bold. Move to 14 teams in the conference and have ND commit to a six game schedule. Three teams from each division every year. If you added the right teams, it would be a home run for everyone in the league. Let's assume you add FSU, Gtech, Clemson and Maryland. Have ND commit to a six team schedule that would look like this one year for Notre Dame:

    UT TCU (or BU) Okie state (or Tech) Gtech Clemson WVU

    And this another year: OU BU Tech Maryland FSU KU (Or maybe you keep Gtech as a protected game)

    Now that's real. Those are some great matchups for ND, the other individual schools, the TV networks and the conference as a whole. It allows for enough balance as well as natural rivals and decent travel schedules in geographic terms.

    I would also allow Notre Dame to showcase their games vs teams like Tech, Baylor and TCU in Jerry World, Reliant or the Alamo Dome to provide a larger venue in areas of Texas with more talent allowing ND to have more of a presence in Texas and the deep from a recruiting standpoint. You could even put a ND vs KU game in arrowhead. This will help build their brand across the most talent rich states year in and year out and put ND in a position to compete for a top 4 spot in the playoffs. Finally, they would still be able to keep their rivalries with Navy, USC, and the Michigan schools if they were so inclinced. There is NO way this wouldn't be BIG BIG BIG $$$ and a tremendous success. This would allow our conference to build its brand instantly in the most compelling way.

    This is an educated guess, I have heard a little bit about what ND would want. I don't think they want to play everyone in the conference every other year. I think that they would want games against Texas and OU all the time (think 3 games every 4 years or 5 games every 6). Other Big 12 schools would see ND on a less frequent basis but obviously it would be a big deal when ND showed up in Lawrence, Lubbock or Waco.

    76-37-5

    ut755

  • Adding FSU and Clemson will not be dilutive, even in these uncertain times. Whether it will be accretive enough to warrant expanding remains to be seen.

    VaHorn

  • GoHorns 1 said...

    ND must play by the rules as all other teams or stay home imo

    As much as many hate it, ND has a lot of power (fan support / money / real tradition) and is good for college football. If you accept that premise, then the rest is academic. Having ND in a playoff means big dollars. And everybody in college football will choose more money over less. That is my reasoning for saying they’ll never be forced to join a conference. In short, it’s bad business to keep ND out, or piss them off. And college football at this level is all about cash money, homey.

    James Westfall

  • VaHorn said...

    Adding FSU and Clemson will not be dilutive, even in these uncertain times. Whether it will be accretive enough to warrant expanding remains to be seen.

    I think it's an absurd notion honestly and is just the message from our athletic department to slow things down. Florida State draws some of the best TV ratings in the country. I saw a table showing they draw the second best ratings in bowl games. They've also been involved in something like five of the top ten rated ESPN games. I know other conferences play on CBS and ABC but still. Florida State absolutely "moves the needle."

    TXA2009

  • TXA2009 said...

    I think it's an absurd notion honestly and is just the message from our athletic department to slow things down. Florida State draws some of the best TV ratings in the country. I saw a table showing they draw the second best ratings in bowl games. They've also been involved in something like five of the top ten rated ESPN games. I know other conferences play on CBS and ABC but still. Florida State absolutely "moves the needle."

    And it is not only in football, Clemson and FSU are also good in the other sports. Both would increase the power of the conference, but that might not be what we want.

    CelinaHorn

  • TXA2009 said...

    I think it's an absurd notion honestly and is just the message from our athletic department to slow things down. Florida State draws some of the best TV ratings in the country. I saw a table showing they draw the second best ratings in bowl games. They've also been involved in something like five of the top ten rated ESPN games. I know other conferences play on CBS and ABC but still. Florida State absolutely "moves the needle."

    Maybe so. But the next move should be to get to 12 teams, which means FSU would need a partner to join. The question is not just about FSU, but whether the two teams COMBINED are accretive enough to warrant expansion.

    Sessamoid

  • That's why I've been saying that adding ND and FSU to get to 12 is the best result for the Big 12. Clemson would be my third choice, but I have no idea who they would join with to get to 14. The quality starts to really drop off after them.

    "I've heard some of our fans say, 'We were always an SEC school. We just didn't know it," athletic director Bill Byrne said.

    Bevo52

  • Sessamoid said...

    Maybe so. But the next move should be to get to 12 teams, which means FSU would need a partner to join. The question is not just about FSU, but whether the two teams COMBINED are accretive enough to warrant expansion.

    This. FSU/Notre Dame is the dream combination. FSU/Clemson makes a lot of sense as well, but only if we have either gotten a firm no from Notre Dame or the league is willing to go to fourteen teams.

    VaHorn

  • VaHorn said...

    This. FSU/Notre Dame is the dream combination. FSU/Clemson makes a lot of sense as well, but only if we have either gotten a firm no from Notre Dame or the league is willing to go to fourteen teams.

    Agree 100%.

    "I've heard some of our fans say, 'We were always an SEC school. We just didn't know it," athletic director Bill Byrne said.

    Bevo52