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Ole Miss line opened at 13, now 10 1/2

  • Translation....the money poured in on the rebels

    The Texas defense cannot afford to pussy foot around with another slow start..

    TexasFight

  • opened at 11, now 10.5 at least according to www.scoresandodds.com

    i agree with your statement though. My biggest worry in this game is a couple quick scores from Ole Miss leaving us playing catch up. We're forced to throw more, and Ash turns it over.

    If we can keep it close through the first half, our depth and running game should lead to a strong second half and a solid victory.

    hooked3333

  • 10-14 points sounds about right.

    PHLHorn

  • 10.5? I'll take Texas to cover that in a heartbeat.

    Bombero

  • People think Ole Miss is good because they played UTEP as tough as OU did. The trouble with this argument is that UTEP is terrible.

    3rdGenHorn


  • Ole Miss is a SEC team, playing at home with a 2-0 record for the first time in years..

    They have a QB who throws lasers

    The Rebels will be jacked up for Texas

    Texas needs to punch them in the mouth early and often

    This will be a statement game on national TV (ESPN) for the Longhorns

    TexasFight

  • Chance for the OLine to really gain some confidence. If they play well Texas wins by 14.

    shnsajax

  • Don't know - the line seems intended to bait those with an opinion of Texas more so than those with an opinion of Ole Miss.

    For all of the hand-wringing and over-analysis of Texas' first two wins, it's worth noting that Ole Miss isn't exactly coming into this game playing the role of juggernaut, either.

    I've seen a similar argument made in Texas' win over Wyoming (lack of scoring separation): Ole Miss trailed Central Arkansas at the half. They were up just 8 entering the fourth quarter before pulling away from an FCS opponent. I don't think a 28-10 win over UTEP should excite anyone either.

    They put the ball on the ground 6 times in the first two games, and lost three a week ago against UTEP. Should have an opportune Texas defense that has forced 4 turnovers licking its chops at some big play potential. Ole Miss' return teams are average at best to this point in the season, which should favor Texas re: field position. Some of the hidden yardage in general seems likely to favor Texas.

    Also, hasn't the coaching staff acknowledged looking past Wyoming and UNM? Given the underwhelming game plans over the first two weeks, I'm inclined to believe as much. Offensively it seems the offense has worked hard to put a number of plays that test the boundaries on film over the past two weeks, keep the game plan simple and limit mistakes while building confidence. Defensively, there wasn't much that was compelling about Diaz's schemes - seemed content to let his defense win more one-on-one matchups than not.

    I think the team Texas has shown over the past couple of weeks should be able to tough out a win on the road. The more Texas deviates from the standard of the first two weeks will determine how competitive the game ultimately is, IMO.

    John Haynsworth

  • According to BigUggly, we're all gonna be mad and wishing Mack had recruited Beau Wallace by Midnight on Saturday. Guess we'll find out in about 5 1/2 days. I see it along the lines of Texas 34 Ole Miss 20.

    ATX89

  • I am a Mississippi State fan. Ole Miss is not very good. They are a little better than a lot of people thought, but their offense depends on runs to the edge and completed passes to keep them in a very fast rhythm. Needless to say, UTEP and UCA don't really have the team defense to slow down runs on the edge which opens up the short passes over the middle. If you slow down their run game, their QBs will have trouble completing passes down the field.

    Their defense is very small. They were losing to Central Arkansas at halftime. UTEP was playing without their starting QB and RB and still was in striking distance in the 4th qtr. UTEP also turned it over on downs at the 1 yd line, threw an INT in the endzone and missed a FG. Had they scored on those 3 possessions they would've been winning in the fourth quarter.

    Schematically, this game reminds me a lot of the Mississippi State vs. Michigan bowl game a few years ago and Manny had a gem of a gameplan and we murdered them and completely shut down Denard Robinson...and Bo Wallace is solid, but he is no Robinson. Their fans are going to be charged up because Texas is coming to town, but unless y'all screw around, you should roll them.

    I will, however, request that you don't lose under any circumstances! Their fans will become even more unBEARable.

    desotobc

  • John Haynsworth said...

    Don't know - the line seems intended to bait those with an opinion of Texas more so than those with an opinion of Ole Miss.

    For all of the hand-wringing and over-analysis of Texas' first two wins, it's worth noting that Ole Miss isn't exactly coming into this game playing the role of juggernaut, either.

    I've seen a similar argument made in Texas' win over Wyoming (lack of scoring separation): Ole Miss trailed Central Arkansas at the half. They were up just 8 entering the fourth quarter before pulling away from an FCS opponent. I don't think a 28-10 win over UTEP should excite anyone either.

    They put the ball on the ground 6 times in the first two games, and lost three a week ago against UTEP. Should have an opportune Texas defense that has forced 4 turnovers licking its chops at some big play potential. Ole Miss' return teams are average at best to this point in the season, which should favor Texas re: field position. Some of the hidden yardage in general seems likely to favor Texas.

    Also, hasn't the coaching staff acknowledged looking past Wyoming and UNM? Given the underwhelming game plans over the first two weeks, I'm inclined to believe as much. Offensively it seems the offense has worked hard to put a number of plays that test the boundaries on film over the past two weeks, keep the game plan simple and limit mistakes while building confidence. Defensively, there wasn't much that was compelling about Diaz's schemes - seemed content to let his defense win more one-on-one matchups than not.

    I think the team Texas has shown over the past couple of weeks should be able to tough out a win on the road. The more Texas deviates from the standard of the first two weeks will determine how competitive the game ultimately is, IMO.

    IMO one thing that seems to be getting overlooked right now is the potential for our kick coverage to lead to some scores. Those guys have been outstanding so far and I think it's only a matter of time before they knock one loose and take it to the house.

    HighFire

  • One man's opinion here, but I think the game plan for Wyoming and UNM was intentionally vanilla, especially the offensive plan. It was designed to work on specific plays and put some tendencies on film. The plan against Ole Miss will, IMO, be a completely different ball game. Night game on ESPN against an SEC opponent--on the road--with a chance to send a message about who Texas is this season.

    I see this one somewhere around 42-17, Texas. At 10.5 I'm definitely laying the points.

    ChampKind

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    rlo630

  • ChampKind said...

    One man's opinion here, but I think the game plan for Wyoming and UNM was intentionally vanilla, especially the offensive plan. It was designed to work on specific plays and put some tendencies on film. The plan against Ole Miss will, IMO, be a completely different ball game. Night game on ESPN against an SEC opponent--on the road--with a chance to send a message about who Texas is this season.

    I see this one somewhere around 42-17, Texas. At 10.5 I'm definitely laying the points.

    From your lips to God's ears.

    Scharnell

  • It's been at 10.5 in regards to most books with Texas taking in 70% of the action.

    That much reverse line movement would have been triggered by a massive amount of steam and smart money. That hasn't happened.

    Fran the Italian Jesus

  • I dont know what Vegas says, but the O/U for this game should be around 45 ro 48 points and I think I will take the under on this one.

    There is nothing more dangerous in this world than a man with nothing to lose.

    bruthaman

  • O/U appears to be holding steady at around 47.5.

    John Haynsworth

  • ChampKind said...

    One man's opinion here, but I think the game plan for Wyoming and UNM was intentionally vanilla, especially the offensive plan. It was designed to work on specific plays and put some tendencies on film. The plan against Ole Miss will, IMO, be a completely different ball game. Night game on ESPN against an SEC opponent--on the road--with a chance to send a message about who Texas is this season.

    I see this one somewhere around 42-17, Texas. At 10.5 I'm definitely laying the points.

    one can only hope.

    I posted this in one of Bobby's threads after the New Mexico game, but there are still some limitations in this offense. The run game being one. This stems from the play of the interior offensive line as well as a change in philosophy, and the fact that McWhorter's recruits are still in the program. Another is speed on offense, whether it's at wide receiver or running back. Bergeron and Brown are the main guys, and they don't bring what Johnson and Gray do when they are on the field. Texas still lacks a deep threat at wide receiver. Finally, the play of Ash. He's been a game manager so far this season, and there are going to be times when he has to be more than that. He has yet to be tested, so the jury is still out as to whether or not he will be able to win games for Texas.

    These are all things that an non-vanilla gameplan won't necessarily fix.

    This post was edited by Silky Johnson on 9/11/2012 at 12:28 PM

    signature image signature image signature image

    Silky Johnson

  • Silky Johnson said...

    The run game being one. This stems from the play of the interior offensive line as well as a change in philosophy, and the fact that McWhorter's recruits are still in the program.

    Good point. But to counter, Texas' top two backs still average more than 6 yards per carry. Even if you take away their biggest runs of the season (54 yards for Bergeron and 31 for Brown), they each still average more than 4 yards per touch (Brown still averages more than 5). Bergeron is averaging 6.5 yards per touch (carries and receptions) in this offense while Brown is all the way up at 7.4 yards.

    John Haynsworth

  • I don't think Ole Miss will win, but if I were a betting man I'd bet the farm on them to cover (assuming the spread stays at or under 10 1/2).

    signature image signature image

    pepper11

  • Schematically, this game reminds me a lot of the Mississippi State vs. Michigan bowl game a few years ago and Manny had a gem of a gameplan and we murdered them and completely shut down Denard Robinson...and Bo Wallace is solid, but he is no Robinson. Their fans are going to be charged up because Texas is coming to town, but unless y'all screw around, you should roll them.

    I will, however, request that you don't lose under any circumstances! Their fans will become even more unBEARable.

    If we beat them will you promise to beat aTm by 30?

    bobtm72

  • ChampKind said...

    One man's opinion here, but I think the game plan for Wyoming and UNM was intentionally vanilla, especially the offensive plan. It was designed to work on specific plays and put some tendencies on film. The plan against Ole Miss will, IMO, be a completely different ball game. Night game on ESPN against an SEC opponent--on the road--with a chance to send a message about who Texas is this season.

    I see this one somewhere around 42-17, Texas. At 10.5 I'm definitely laying the points.

    Yep. This is spot on. My score is 42-14. Go watch their game against UTEP and you'll see why.

    Streaming Online - WatchESPN

    http://espn.go.com/watchespn/player/_/source/espn3/id/560089/#

    espn.go.com

    Flounder32

  • John Haynsworth said...

    Good point. But to counter, Texas' top two backs still average more than 6 yards per carry. Even if you take away their biggest runs of the season (54 yards for Bergeron and 31 for Brown), they each still average more than 4 yards per touch (Brown still averages more than 5). Bergeron is averaging 6.5 yards per touch (carries and receptions) in this offense while Brown is all the way up at 7.4 yards.

    The thing is, those guys get the majority of the touches but neither bring take-it-to-the-house ability. Don't underestimate a runningback that can see a crease and be gone or can eliminate any angle a defender takes on him. I'm talking about runs like this. Brown and Bergeron run into those two defenders, where Johnson and Gray blow by them like Charles did. Texas needs that kind of ability on the field every play.

    This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by Silky Johnson on 9/11/2012 at 1:19 PM

    Play

    Jamaal Charles 75 yard TD run vs Oklahoma ...

    Jamaal Charles 75 yard TD run vs Oklahoma State

    http://www.youtube.com/v/dnueBKSEHLw
    signature image signature image signature image

    Silky Johnson

  • Silky Johnson said...

    one can only hope.

    I posted this in one of Bobby's threads after the New Mexico game, but there are still some limitations in this offense. The run game being one. This stems from the play of the interior offensive line as well as a change in philosophy, and the fact that McWhorter's recruits are still in the program. Another is speed on offense, whether it's at wide receiver or running back. Bergeron and Brown are the main guys, and they don't bring what Johnson and Gray do when they are on the field. Texas still lacks a deep threat at wide receiver. Finally, the play of Ash. He's been a game manager so far this season, and there are going to be times when he has to be more than that. He has yet to be tested, so the jury is still out as to whether or not he will be able to win games for Texas.

    These are all things that an non-vanilla gameplan won't necessarily fix.

    Here's the thing. Brown and Bergeron are known quantities, and both have proven themselves effective. I'm a big, BIG J. Gray and D. Johnson fan. But we don't really know that they will be more effective running backs than Brown or Bergeron. Another note, before Jamaal Charles there was Ced Benson, Priest Holmes, Ricky Williams and Shon Mitchell. None of those guys were noted "speed" backs in the mold of Jamaal or Ramonce Taylor. Why is that relevant? I'll contend that Texas can be mighty effective as a running team with Malcolm Brown/Joe Bergeron as the primary backs. Those guys are not terribly dissimilar from the studs I just mentioned. Should Gray and Johnson be on the field more often? Sure, Bryan Harsin probably would agree with that.

    Deep threat at WR. Did I miss something or isn't Marquise Goodwin still on the team? Hasn't Mike Davis been targeted on post patterns more often than any other route? Hasn't there been mention that we can expect Daje to be lined up at WR quite a bit? And what of Kendall Sanders? That guy is kinda fast...isn't he? It's really difficult to dissect the Texas passing game when the majority if the pass plays we've seen so far this year involve two-man routes. When the defensive backfield has to cover three our four routes, it will make it a whole lot easier for a receiver to get behind the coverage. I think we should probably wait until we see a diverse game plan before we start calling the offense limited.

    I do not disagree with your take on Ash. He's been a solid game manager. Frankly, that is all that should be required of him this season for Texas to contend for the conference. Texas has a wealth of offensive weapons. They should not have to rely on the quarterback position to win ball games for them. Especially not in what looks to be a fairly down year in conference.

    ChampKind

  • ChampKind said...

    Here's the thing. Brown and Bergeron are known quantities, and both have proven themselves effective. I'm a big, BIG J. Gray and D. Johnson fan. But we don't really know that they will be more effective running backs than Brown or Bergeron. Another note, before Jamaal Charles there was Ced Benson, Priest Holmes, Ricky Williams and Shon Mitchell. None of those guys were noted "speed" backs in the mold of Jamaal or Ramonce Taylor. Why is that relevant? I'll contend that Texas can be mighty effective as a running team with Malcolm Brown/Joe Bergeron as the primary backs. Those guys are not terribly dissimilar from the studs I just mentioned. Should Gray and Johnson be on the field more often? Sure, Bryan Harsin probably would agree with that.

    Deep threat at WR. Did I miss something or isn't Marquise Goodwin still on the team? Hasn't Mike Davis been targeted on post patterns more often than any other route? Hasn't there been mention that we can expect Daje to be lined up at WR quite a bit? And what of Kendall Sanders? That guy is kinda fast...isn't he? It's really difficult to dissect the Texas passing game when the majority if the pass plays we've seen so far this year involve two-man routes. When the defensive backfield has to cover three our four routes, it will make it a whole lot easier for a receiver to get behind the coverage. I think we should probably wait until we see a diverse game plan before we start calling the offense limited.

    I do not disagree with your take on Ash. He's been a solid game manager. Frankly, that is all that should be required of him this season for Texas to contend for the conference. Texas has a wealth of offensive weapons. They should not have to rely on the quarterback position to win ball games for them. Especially not in what looks to be a fairly down year in conference.

    it's relevant because Texas doesn't have the offensive line that make runningbacks like Brown and Bergeron as effective as they should be.

    signature image signature image signature image

    Silky Johnson