Horns247 Board

Bruthaman,

I saw your post somewhat late (link below), and thought it deserved a more thorough treatment, as you seemed to have put some thought into your statements. I post here in a new thread in hopes of catching your attention. For those who didn't see it, there was a discussion related to CBS' forecasted ranking of UT as the #6 team in Big 12 for 2012, and Bruthaman raised the question as to why there should be any "optimism" regarding UT's improvement over '11. Here are a few thoughts for you to consider:

* At DT, Dorsey was a good last year as Randall was his junior year. At times, he was just dominant. D. Jackson, a true freshmen last year, caught everyone's eye, and has already taken another step up in spring ball winning the starting role due to his incredible first step and high motor. Whaley is perhaps the best big athelete in the Big 12, and he'll be coming at you from anywhere on the DL, and finally, our JUCO Brandon Moore, 6'5" 335, is going to be a total run stopper up the middle, our first like this since Roy Miller. Only his conditioning will slow him. (see comments on conditioning below). Oh yeah, I almost forgot, we've got a guy from Brenham named Malcom Brown, #4 in Texas overall and #1 DT in Texas, #5 DT in nation. He'll be our true freshmen OU will see on a few plays as well. So there is a 5 man rotation of pure studs at DT. All 5 of those guys will be 3rd/4th round NFL picks, with 2 of them possible 1/2 rounders.

* DE: we have the best tandem in the Big 12, probably in the nation with Okafor and Jeffcoat. Okafor will go 1 or 2 to NFL in April '13, and Jeffcoat could go 3rd then as well, or wait to play his Sr. year.

* MLB, I'd like to introduce you to one Mr. Steve Edmond. Steve is quiet fellow they say, but has uncanny anticipation/intuition. He is the second fastest big man we have, after Whaley. Did I mention he is big too? 6'3" 260. This guy is an NFL 1st rounder after his Jr. year.

* OLB: you may recognize Jordan Hicks. #1 LB in the country in class of 2010. He had some injuries last year, but is at full speed again and looking forward to Dallas. And another guy you may recognize, DeMarro Cobbs. He was the #1 LB in Oklahoma, and #3 overall recruit in OK in 2010. He's been waiting for Acho to leave to get on the field.

* Saftey: we've got a guy named Vacarro who could have gone 3rd round NFL this year. He'll be first round after '12. Adrian Phillips will be a large upgrade athletically over our prior Sr. safety Gideon.

* CB: we have the 2 best CB's in the Big 12. Period.

All this is to say you will face a defense at a level better than what you saw last year.

You say "we put 55 on you last year, so it ain't saying much". Yes, it's true. But let's look a little closer:

* 31 points of the 55 were scored directly off of 4 of our 5 turnovers and a punt return, not against our defense. That leaves 24 points to be answered for. (please note your Off scored less than Def/ST's).

* Broyles was unstoppable: 9 catches, 122 yds, 1 TD, before injury. He is there no more. Our true freshmen Diggs at CB received an education that day. He is now one of the best CB's in the Big 12.

So, if not for our offensive and special teams ineptitude last October, you get 24 against us. Moreover, due to all the momentum losses and eventual fatigue of our defense, as you rightly point out, we'd have likely held OU to 3 TD's or less in that game, with the 2011 defense, had our offense been simply "decent". The '12 defense is better.

The real issue for UT, as you point out, is our Offense. QB, WR, and OL all had questions. Although our TE was productive against OU, the overall season was not good either. Only RB seemed to be good, and even it was wiped out with injuries sidelining our top 3 RB's by the last few games. So let's look at your legit questions, as we all have them too:

1) QB - by sheer passage of time with game repetitions, Ash will improve. No reason to think he'll improve any less than your recruit from Artesia, NM, Jones, did between his fresh and sophomore years. Additionally, Ash was actually our 3rd team QB going into opening season, receiving no starter reps in practice until he was promoted to starter after the 3rd game of the season. So he has just received his first spring practices as a starter, with all the 1st team reps. This will make a second significant impact on his improvement. It would be unreasonable to expect anything other than a significant upgrade at QB, and all insider reports concur so far.

2) WR - Our #1 receiver injured his knee midway through the season. Our other #1 receiver, Davis, simply had a "sophomore slump" as many do. Both of these receivers are capable of NFL round 2 or 3 based on their current trajectory. If injury is avoided, you will soon see this. After those top 2, we have a guy named Marquise Goodwin. You may remember him from OU's last game vs. Colt McCoy. He's pretty good too. After these 3, we've got guys who've yet to prove anything (Harris, Hales), along with the #1 WR in Texas, #5 WR in the nation coming in as a true freshmen to help out. All in all a pretty stout group, which if injuries are avoided, could be quite effective.

3) OL - Our OL was weak in 2 out of 5 positions last year. Our SEC coach Searles has been quite busy working on this issue, and for the first time since 2009, we have 5 likely NFL draftees in the lineup. Our only issue here will be depth and injuries. Fortunately, we'll get OU before injuries likely start to add up.

4) Other - Our TE is still inconsistent in that our good receiving TE's can't block well, and our good blocking TE's can't catch well. This is our second vulnerability after OL depth. Also, at RB, although Fozzy is gone, we'll be introducing Mr. Gray, the #1 RB and #5 overall in the Nation, as our 3rd back. Hopefully, he'll hold his own.

5) Injuries - you may think I've leaned too heavily on injuries to explain 2011, so a comment is deserved. First off, they are unpredictable and can be devastating to any team. See your comment re OU's offense after losing Broyles. They are the "good luck" and "bad luck" of sports. You can expect to lose a starter at a position about 25% of the time. To lose a starter and a backup is about 5%. To lose a starter, the 1st backup, and the 2nd backup, happens about 1% of the time. That's some bad luck, and that's what happened to our offense at RB. We were heading for a very possible 10-2 finish before that.

Secondly, the one thing you can do to minimize injuries is to improve the strength and conditioning of your athletes. To that end, we probably have one of the absolute best in a guy named Bennie Wylie. He has just completed his first year around and begun his second year of off-season responsibilities. This guy has already created a significant improvement for us, and will continue to do so. Gone are the years of us being the 2nd best conditioned team on the field. Anyone doubting this need only inquire as to the details of his "County Fair" days.

So, overall, there is no doubt our offense is significantly better. It is not without vulnerabilities for sure, but it is better. I'd suggest you will not be able to count on 24 points coming directly from offensive miscues. Moreover, you will meet, with an Okafor/Edmond/Vacarro-led defense, a defense that will not so easily be worn out and moved down the field. In fact, this particular defense has the talent to inflict some real hurt on anyone who wants to test the middle, run or pass. We've only got 2 Sr's on D, so get used to it.

With UT's improvement being clarified, the next question would be: has OU gotten better or worse on O and on D?

[sorry for the length, but it's a good question, and frankly enjoyable to ponder]