Horns247 Board

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Willow01 said...

There is no game on the 2012 schedule that is a sure loss and the Horns can certainly win all of them.

I think there will be a possible upset loss, but still a conference championship season for the Horns and a BCS bowl.

The defense and running game will be sick in 2012.

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Alan Trubow said...

Definitely not a sure loss but there are plenty of tough games that aren't close to sure wins either.

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Codaxx said...

Not sure about DT. I think everyone will improve and Tank is making a lot of noise, but Kheeston was a player. I am not sure there is anyone that can consistantly produce like he could. He wasn't flashy, but he will be missed. Overall there is more talent there and the position will "flash" more, but with youth you tend to get mixed results. I hope you are right, but I have to say it will be flat. LB is another. Replacing 2 guys that are going to the NFL, very hard to predict higher performance. The potential at both spots is higher this year, but so is the volatility

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Codaxx said...

Not sure about DT. I think everyone will improve and Tank is making a lot of noise, but Kheeston was a player. I am not sure there is anyone that can consistantly produce like he could. He wasn't flashy, but he will be missed. Overall there is more talent there and the position will "flash" more, but with youth you tend to get mixed results. I hope you are right, but I have to say it will be flat. LB is another. Replacing 2 guys that are going to the NFL, very hard to predict higher performance. The potential at both spots is higher this year, but so is the volatility

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jjloehr said...

You could be right about DT being flat. I like the depth there better than '11. I'm trusting Dorsey to be pretty good... about even with KR. I may be overplaying that...

At MLB, I stand with my assessent. I watched this position most of the time in '11, and it was very painful. Acho was quite good and scrappy and deserves his reputation. Robinson, on the other hand, although "great on the hoof", did not help us much at all until the end of the season. He killed us vs OU and OSU. He's a great guy, and seemed to turn a corner the last 3 or 4 games of the season, and looked great vs. Cal. The truth is Keenan was out of position... he is an outside linebacker, not MLB. He'll be outside in the NFL too. It will not be hard to improve on KR's game vs. the run. Edmond is on an entire different level than Robinson vs. run, and appears to be good vs. pass enough for Diaz to leave him in on nickel.

Mark my words: MLB will be a dominant strength of ours this season. Teams will try to avoid Edmond.

At OLB, Hicks is back, and reports have him significantly stepping up his game, so we only need Cobbs or Jackson to play as well as Hicks did in '11, and let Hicks fill in Acho's role. I think they are able to do that, as Hicks was slightly disappointing in '11. I'm betting on it, but you could be right about OLB.

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bat said...

I would evaluate a bunch of positions differently, for a couple of reasons.

1) The value of experience. We had true Freshman starters at a bunch of positions, and many of them without Spring reps or even Summer reps. Ash didn't even have the lion's share of August two-a-day reps.

For those reasons, these players will be hugely improved: Ash, Cochran, Shipley, Brown, Bergeron, and Diggs. Some players will be somewhat improved, because they are returning starters rather than first time starters. There are a bunch of these.

So I would call the improvements on the offense incalculable. Quarterback will be hugely improved, Good improvement on your scale. Same goes for wide receiver, tackle, and center.

2) A player's fit for the schemes that we're playing against. Edmond is a very good player. But he's a first year starter, and a big middle linebacker in a league that is full of passing teams. I find it hard to believe that we'll be better at linebacker this year. I think we'll slip a bunch at two spots and see some improvement with the third. We undersold Robinson all year.

In short, true Freshman Ash is not returning starter Ash.

3) Scheme and conditioning. We're going to have a full year of conditioning under the new regime. We are also running known schemes, with a full season, bowl game, bowl practices, Spring practices, Summer seven on sevens, and two a days. That's a lot of practice reps, and a lot of time for the coaches to understand what we have and rework culture.

4) The injury situation. It's tough to predict, but a bunch of it is from us being so young. The injuries that hurt us the worst were Shipley, Brown, Bergeron, Harris, and Whittaker. Four of the five were Freshmen. Three of those were true Freshmen.

I would expect big time improvement at QB. We can't help but be better based on the number of snaps Ash has seen.

I would expect big time improvement at OL (both inside and out) based on getting older and more experienced, and based on bringing in a Juco to fill our biggest need. That we believe Hawkins is a better player than Sophmore Cochran is great news. I think that means we'll be significantly improved at tackle. That also improves us inside as Hopkins is our best guard, allowing us to use him inside. Espinosa is the wild card, but he'll too be significantly improved with experience.

I think we'll be much better at RB and WR based on health, experience, and a talent infusion. And tight end was a train wreck last year. Irby was basically a non-factor. We return everyone else, and add both Terrell and McFarland to the mix.

Every single unit but fullback will be significantly better. Depending on how we deploy our running backs, that position could actually improve too.

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ThornyHorn said...

Last year at this point, it was GG at QB, not Ash/McCoy.

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bat said...

I would evaluate a bunch of positions differently, for a couple of reasons.

1) The value of experience. We had true Freshman starters at a bunch of positions, and many of them without Spring reps or even Summer reps. Ash didn't even have the lion's share of August two-a-day reps.

For those reasons, these players will be hugely improved: Ash, Cochran, Shipley, Brown, Bergeron, and Diggs. Some players will be somewhat improved, because they are returning starters rather than first time starters. There are a bunch of these.

So I would call the improvements on the offense incalculable. Quarterback will be hugely improved, Good improvement on your scale. Same goes for wide receiver, tackle, and center.

2) A player's fit for the schemes that we're playing against. Edmond is a very good player. But he's a first year starter, and a big middle linebacker in a league that is full of passing teams. I find it hard to believe that we'll be better at linebacker this year. I think we'll slip a bunch at two spots and see some improvement with the third. We undersold Robinson all year.

In short, true Freshman Ash is not returning starter Ash.

3) Scheme and conditioning. We're going to have a full year of conditioning under the new regime. We are also running known schemes, with a full season, bowl game, bowl practices, Spring practices, Summer seven on sevens, and two a days. That's a lot of practice reps, and a lot of time for the coaches to understand what we have and rework culture.

4) The injury situation. It's tough to predict, but a bunch of it is from us being so young. The injuries that hurt us the worst were Shipley, Brown, Bergeron, Harris, and Whittaker. Four of the five were Freshmen. Three of those were true Freshmen.

I would expect big time improvement at QB. We can't help but be better based on the number of snaps Ash has seen.

I would expect big time improvement at OL (both inside and out) based on getting older and more experienced, and based on bringing in a Juco to fill our biggest need. That we believe Hawkins is a better player than Sophmore Cochran is great news. I think that means we'll be significantly improved at tackle. That also improves us inside as Hopkins is our best guard, allowing us to use him inside. Espinosa is the wild card, but he'll too be significantly improved with experience.

I think we'll be much better at RB and WR based on health, experience, and a talent infusion. And tight end was a train wreck last year. Irby was basically a non-factor. We return everyone else, and add both Terrell and McFarland to the mix.

Every single unit but fullback will be significantly better. Depending on how we deploy our running backs, that position could actually improve too.

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AllenHorn said...

I agree with most of your analysis with one exception - the OT spots. While Cochran improved dramatically from the OSU game to the bowl game; we started with Tray Allen at LT which wasn't good. Hawkins is an upgrade over the Cochran/Allen combo. A stronger, more experienced Cochran is a big upgrade over Hopkins who was playing out of position.

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jjloehr said...

Seems like it's time to compare where we may be trending vs. where we've just come from.

2011 team was headed for a 10-2 season until a rash of injuries hit us at RB.
This further exposed our weakness at QB and lead to the 7-5 finish, pre-bowl.

That's our reference point.

OFFENSE:
Pos - '12 vs. '11 Comparison - VERDICT - Comment

QB - '12 Ash vs. '11 Gilbert/Ash/McCoy - SOME IMPROVEMENT
- Natural maturation + Ash w/ full off-season of #1 QB reps. Still very young.

RB - '12 JB/MB/DJ/JG vs. JB/MB/DJ/FW - GOOD IMPROVEMENT
- JB and MB are stronger. DJ... no change. JG > FW. 'GOOD' due to improved health.

C - '12 Walter/Espinosa vs. '11 Espinosa - SOME IMPROVEMENT
- Espinosa slightly better, simply by experience, but still weak head up. Walters is in if DE doesn't improve. Porter still not ready.

G - '12 Walter/Hopkins/Flowers vs. '11 Walters/Snow - GOOD IMPROVEMENT
Walters continues to stregthen. Flowers > Snow last year until concussion. Hopkins is at his best position. Riser could help.

T - '12 Hawkins/Cochran/Kelley vs. '11 Hopkins/Cochran/Kelley - SOME IMPROVEMENT
Potential for good improvement is there, but not until Hawkins stabilizes. Fingers are crossed. Hughes could add depth.

TE - '12 Grant/Tarrell/Mathews/McFarland vs. '11 Irby/Grant/Mathews/Poehlman - SOME IMPROVEMENT
We had trouble catching and blocking. In '12, we'll at least catch well.

WR - '12 JS/MD/MG/JH/DH/CJ vs. '11 JS/MD/MG/JH/DH/DW - SOME IMPROVEMENT
- Davis had slump, Shiplye/Harris injured, Hales no-showed, White was terrible. Davis/Shipley are back strong, Harris will be back, Hales is promising (again), C. Jones could help right away.

FB - '12 Roberson vs. '11 Johnson - DECLINE
- CJ was NFL terrific. Roberson may be adequate. We will likely put Mathews into FB role for blocking.

OVERALL OFFENSE:
DECLINE - 1 position (FB)
SOME IMPROVEMENT - 2 positions (QB, C, TE, WR, T)
GOOD IMPROVEMENT - 3 positions (G, RB)

Overall, Offense has some or good improvement at 11 of 12 positions. Other than FB, progress is showing everywhere. Across-the-board improvement like that will have additional synergistic effects resulting in GOOD IMPROVEMENT overall.
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DEFENSE:
Pos - '12 vs. '11 Comparison - VERDICT - Comment

DT - '12 AD/DJ/CW/BM/MB vs '11 KR/AD/CH/CW/DJ - SOME IMPROVEMENT
- we were good in '11, and we'll be very good in '12. If BM can get in shape well enough to last a whole series, we could be great.

DE - '12 AO/JJ/RW/CR vs '11 AO/JJ/RW/CR - SOME IMPROVEMENT
- we were good in '11, we'll be very good in '12 through maturation of all players. A Ridgeway and T. Davis can give more depth.

MLB - '12 Edmond vs. '11 Robinson - GOOD IMPROVEMENT
- Robinson struggled to get off blocks much of '11. No interceptions. Edmond is a beast, and can also drop back well. He'll dominate.

OLB - '12 Hicks/Cobbs vs. '11 Acho/Hicks - STATUS QUO
- Losing Acho is big. Hicks looking great. Cobbs return is questionable. Depth not good. Hicks improvement is a wash with other concerns.

S - '12 Vacarro/Phillips vs. '11 Gideon/Vacarro - GOOD IMPROVEMENT
- I know BG was smart, but athletic limitations really showed. Phillips is smart enough and much more athletic. Vacarro will dominate.

CB - '12 Byndom/Diggs vs. '11 Byndom/Diggs - SOME IMPROVEMENT
- They're already terrrific. Natural progression and experience makes them even better. Young Orlando Thomas, plus JT and LS give depth.

OVERALL DEFENSE:
DECLINE - 0
STATUS QUO - 2 positions (OLB)
SOME IMPROVEMENT - 6 positions (DT, DE, CB)
GOOD IMPROVEMENT - 3 positions (MLB, S)

Overall, Defense has 9 of 11 positions showing 'some' to 'good' improvement on a defense that was already exceptional. We could be scary good in '12.
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OVERALL TEAM:

So, if '11 was an 8-5 season with 2 losses solely due to injury rash at RB, I see us IMPROVING by 4 games.

Big wildcard still unanswered is Kicking game. Very probable DECLINE there, costing us at least one game.

Your thoughts?