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Texas is the projected Big 12 champion and lands in the Fiesta Bowl. With the last pick of at-large selections, the Fiesta will take Fresno State, who will automatically qualify for one of the spots.
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I don't know if a single point home overtime win over a very mediocre Rutgers team gives me a lot of confidence that Fresno State will win at Colorado or Wyoming, beat Boise State at home (though Boise State's performance has me wondering if it can beat anybody), and win the MWC conference championship game. I can see them finishing with a pair of losses and feel fairly certain they will have at least one, which will probably prevent them from finishing in the top 16. Assuming Louisville runs its schedule, Fresno State would probably have to finish top 12 to get a bid.
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