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I saw your post somewhat late (link below), and thought it deserved a more thorough treatment, as you seemed to have put some thought into your statements. I post here in a new thread in hopes of catching your attention. For those who didn't see it, there was a discussion related to CBS' forecasted ranking of UT as the #6 team in Big 12 for 2012, and Bruthaman raised the question as to why there should be any "optimism" regarding UT's improvement over '11. Here are a few thoughts for you to consider:
* At DT, Dorsey was a good last year as Randall was his junior year. At times, he was just dominant. D. Jackson, a true freshmen last year, caught everyone's eye, and has already taken another step up in spring ball winning the starting role due to his incredible first step and high motor. Whaley is perhaps the best big athelete in the Big 12, and he'll be coming at you from anywhere on the DL, and finally, our JUCO Brandon Moore, 6'5" 335, is going to be a total run stopper up the middle, our first like this since Roy Miller. Only his conditioning will slow him. (see comments on conditioning below). Oh yeah, I almost forgot, we've got a guy from Brenham named Malcom Brown, #4 in Texas overall and #1 DT in Texas, #5 DT in nation. He'll be our true freshmen OU will see on a few plays as well. So there is a 5 man rotation of pure studs at DT. All 5 of those guys will be 3rd/4th round NFL picks, with 2 of them possible 1/2 rounders.
* DE: we have the best tandem in the Big 12, probably in the nation with Okafor and Jeffcoat. Okafor will go 1 or 2 to NFL in April '13, and Jeffcoat could go 3rd then as well, or wait to play his Sr. year.
* MLB, I'd like to introduce you to one Mr. Steve Edmond. Steve is quiet fellow they say, but has uncanny anticipation/intuition. He is the second fastest big man we have, after Whaley. Did I mention he is big too? 6'3" 260. This guy is an NFL 1st rounder after his Jr. year.
* OLB: you may recognize Jordan Hicks. #1 LB in the country in class of 2010. He had some injuries last year, but is at full speed again and looking forward to Dallas. And another guy you may recognize, DeMarro Cobbs. He was the #1 LB in Oklahoma, and #3 overall recruit in OK in 2010. He's been waiting for Acho to leave to get on the field.
* Saftey: we've got a guy named Vacarro who could have gone 3rd round NFL this year. He'll be first round after '12. Adrian Phillips will be a large upgrade athletically over our prior Sr. safety Gideon.
* CB: we have the 2 best CB's in the Big 12. Period.
All this is to say you will face a defense at a level better than what you saw last year.
You say "we put 55 on you last year, so it ain't saying much". Yes, it's true. But let's look a little closer:
* 31 points of the 55 were scored directly off of 4 of our 5 turnovers and a punt return, not against our defense. That leaves 24 points to be answered for. (please note your Off scored less than Def/ST's).
* Broyles was unstoppable: 9 catches, 122 yds, 1 TD, before injury. He is there no more. Our true freshmen Diggs at CB received an education that day. He is now one of the best CB's in the Big 12.
So, if not for our offensive and special teams ineptitude last October, you get 24 against us. Moreover, due to all the momentum losses and eventual fatigue of our defense, as you rightly point out, we'd have likely held OU to 3 TD's or less in that game, with the 2011 defense, had our offense been simply "decent". The '12 defense is better.
The real issue for UT, as you point out, is our Offense. QB, WR, and OL all had questions. Although our TE was productive against OU, the overall season was not good either. Only RB seemed to be good, and even it was wiped out with injuries sidelining our top 3 RB's by the last few games. So let's look at your legit questions, as we all have them too:
1) QB - by sheer passage of time with game repetitions, Ash will improve. No reason to think he'll improve any less than your recruit from Artesia, NM, Jones, did between his fresh and sophomore years. Additionally, Ash was actually our 3rd team QB going into opening season, receiving no starter reps in practice until he was promoted to starter after the 3rd game of the season. So he has just received his first spring practices as a starter, with all the 1st team reps. This will make a second significant impact on his improvement. It would be unreasonable to expect anything other than a significant upgrade at QB, and all insider reports concur so far.
2) WR - Our #1 receiver injured his knee midway through the season. Our other #1 receiver, Davis, simply had a "sophomore slump" as many do. Both of these receivers are capable of NFL round 2 or 3 based on their current trajectory. If injury is avoided, you will soon see this. After those top 2, we have a guy named Marquise Goodwin. You may remember him from OU's last game vs. Colt McCoy. He's pretty good too. After these 3, we've got guys who've yet to prove anything (Harris, Hales), along with the #1 WR in Texas, #5 WR in the nation coming in as a true freshmen to help out. All in all a pretty stout group, which if injuries are avoided, could be quite effective.
3) OL - Our OL was weak in 2 out of 5 positions last year. Our SEC coach Searles has been quite busy working on this issue, and for the first time since 2009, we have 5 likely NFL draftees in the lineup. Our only issue here will be depth and injuries. Fortunately, we'll get OU before injuries likely start to add up.
4) Other - Our TE is still inconsistent in that our good receiving TE's can't block well, and our good blocking TE's can't catch well. This is our second vulnerability after OL depth. Also, at RB, although Fozzy is gone, we'll be introducing Mr. Gray, the #1 RB and #5 overall in the Nation, as our 3rd back. Hopefully, he'll hold his own.
5) Injuries - you may think I've leaned too heavily on injuries to explain 2011, so a comment is deserved. First off, they are unpredictable and can be devastating to any team. See your comment re OU's offense after losing Broyles. They are the "good luck" and "bad luck" of sports. You can expect to lose a starter at a position about 25% of the time. To lose a starter and a backup is about 5%. To lose a starter, the 1st backup, and the 2nd backup, happens about 1% of the time. That's some bad luck, and that's what happened to our offense at RB. We were heading for a very possible 10-2 finish before that.
Secondly, the one thing you can do to minimize injuries is to improve the strength and conditioning of your athletes. To that end, we probably have one of the absolute best in a guy named Bennie Wylie. He has just completed his first year around and begun his second year of off-season responsibilities. This guy has already created a significant improvement for us, and will continue to do so. Gone are the years of us being the 2nd best conditioned team on the field. Anyone doubting this need only inquire as to the details of his "County Fair" days.
So, overall, there is no doubt our offense is significantly better. It is not without vulnerabilities for sure, but it is better. I'd suggest you will not be able to count on 24 points coming directly from offensive miscues. Moreover, you will meet, with an Okafor/Edmond/Vacarro-led defense, a defense that will not so easily be worn out and moved down the field. In fact, this particular defense has the talent to inflict some real hurt on anyone who wants to test the middle, run or pass. We've only got 2 Sr's on D, so get used to it.
With UT's improvement being clarified, the next question would be: has OU gotten better or worse on O and on D?
[sorry for the length, but it's a good question, and frankly enjoyable to ponder]
Is predicted win/loss total. Big12 #6....really?
This post has been edited 7 times, most recently by jjloehr 2 years ago
I like the way you put that bro. Very good points in that argument.
This post was edited by HookEm22 2 years ago
I just took a second look, and I see at least 9 guys on our defense that will likely go by or before 4th round to the NFL:
1st-3rd round guys:
3rd or 4th round guys:
Diggs and Phillips could go NFL as well most likely.
That is just a loaded defense. It hasn't been this loaded since I started following closely in 2003.
Yea I think we could have some breakout players on offense also that are coming in this summer and some already on campus
Excellent response loehr!
I see 8 on offense that could be NFL:
and maybe Davis if he really comes back to form in the season.
You are by far one of the better posters on this board. You have put together several fine compulations of who goes where,at what position, and who the back ups are, even how long they will be on the team...great work appreciated by all us Longhorns.
I question why do you put time in to address a troll from ou? Maybe it's no big deal but a guy who has Malcolm X as his avatar and is from ou certainly seems like a waste of time. I believe he is here just to cause trouble, looking to stur the pot.
I know many appreciate your work, I for one. Hook'em
I like it
I would upvote 2x if I could
yea I think guys like johnathan gray,torshiro davis and dalton santos can be something special. If they come in and work hard, Really this whole class coming in this summer is amazing.
I want to second everything you said and also offer a reason for reply....
The reason to answer any query or challenge is to exercise what reason we can marshal. It doesn't help to say - 'you're just an idiot' - to any challenge. Reasoned responses like what jj provided are exactly how we should answer.
Frankly, I'm proud of what he did. I was trying to think of a similar reply but could never have provided it in such detail.
Smack talk has its place. But a well-reasoned, factual response is far superior in my opinion.
Certainty is the enemy. I think.......
+1 to the OP and +1 to you, Bevo...I had not noticed the Malcom X in the avatar...Malcom X was not a good dude...in my opinion, he was the opposite of MLK, who I think was one of our greatest Americans (I know that belongs in the OT but it does say something about our boy bruthaman and the fact he should never have credibility on this board, ever, blowu troll or no, imo...). Thanks for pointing that out.
Your point is well made. One classy response begets a classy comment. Hook'em
Hey thanks, Bevo,
First off, I never saw the avatar. Secondly, I tend to evaluate folks on this board by their words more than anything else. Third off, the guy actually made a decent contribution, albeit mistaken, and worthy of correction. Fourth, I have a few, well, okay, I have one set of OU friends who are incredible humans, and my father-in-law is also an Okie, so I don't write them off as humans simply because of misplaced loyalties. I wait to let them speak before putting them in the "shun" box. ;)
Lastly, I have a major project I'm procastinating on and looking for stuff to respond to on 247 is how I procastinate. :) Closer to the truth than I want to say!!!
This post was edited by jjloehr 2 years ago
jjioehr, good and well thought out post. I have a question regarding DeMarco Cobbs, you mentioned he was the #1 rated LB in OK his senior year. I thought he was a QB, safety, WR prospect, not that it makes a difference as regardless of position he was highly recruited. Also, how much didhe play last year, I know he was hurt for awhile. In my mind I view him as a potential talent but also one with limited experience at the LB position. I could be wrong but don't think he was moved to LB until last year and then played little due to injuries. Just curious about Cobbs, know he is talented
you are 100%. He was an offensive player in OU. He was forecasted for defense by many, but others thought offense too. It wasn't decided until he got here. I think he thought he could get on the field faster on defense.
But don't tell Brutha troll. I was testing him to see if he knew...
This post has been edited 2 times, most recently by jjloehr 2 years ago
This year's team will go as the the OL and QB go.
The OL has zero proven depth.
Ash and the WRs have to show they can make teams pay for loading up against the running game.
that's usually the nature of depth isn't it? That's why they don't start.
Without going into as much detail as OP, simple why we get better, much better. Most teams from year to year, have some units that get better, some the same, some worse depending on graduation, who's coming in, coaching changes, intangibles...I cannot think of a single unit on this team, except placekicking, that is not as good or much better than last year. OL, TE, RB, QB..all will be better, DL better, DE same, CB even better, safeties same. I'm usually a pessimist but I really don't see any, ANY game on the schedule we should not be favored to win frankly. Odds are we lose 2 somewhere as we are not THAT overwhelming to overcome "those days" until 2013.
Like what you said, I just don't see how you can predict what round Brandon Moore will go in though when nobody has seen him play. He could go higher if he is the run stopper we have been hearing about.
Well last year had no OL depth not even unproven. Searels can make a decent OL this year but still doesn't have the depth the absorb injuries. 2013 will be the first year that the OL is 'recovered' from how the previous OL coach left it.
They still suck.
If there was a +10000000 tab I would have hit it, those were some great points, kinda have a feeling you could have wrote a little more, haha, plus ou still sux!!......
This rally against the OU troll is going too far.
Flowers barely saw the field so it's too early to rate him NFL good. He's not even a starter as of right now.
Goodwin will be a late round or FA if he even goes the NFL route.
My son is a Patriots fan, therefore I've come to see a lot of their games. They have a guy name Vince Wilfork. He is a game changer. Brandon Moore has the same "m.o.". Early reports on him in practice have been one of two categories: "immovable, dominant, unstoppable" and "needs conditioning, gets too high when tired, a JAG when tired".
All he needs is a serious conditioning program, and it so happens that we have one. I'm definitely speaking with some faith that BM will engage and participate well in Wylie's program. I could be wrong, of course.
But he is 6'5", 330 lbs, and can play. That kind of size with athleticism does not grow on trees.
All of my forecasts should, of course, be taken with a grain, or block of salt. Just add this phrase in your mind to anything you read from me: "unless anything self-destructive or really bad luck should happen."
This post has been edited 3 times, most recently by jjloehr 2 years ago
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