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As many on here know, I'm one of the more frustrated with the current state of Texas basketball. With that said, I decided to take a look at every school in the six major basketball conferences (ACC, Big Ten, Big East, Big Twelve, Pac 12, and SEC) to see where Texas stands in regards to NCAA tournament success. I've seen a few comments on here about how you can't measure a coach by NCAA success as it is a single elimination tournament, and I suppose I can agree from a single season perspective. However, the purpose of all competitive athletics is to win the championship and over four years you should see progress towards winning the tournament. Based on the top 10 at the end, I think it's pretty safe to say that NCAA tournament success is very relative to program success.
As a note, I considered a season which did not end in an NCAA tournament appearance as 0 wins and 2 losses as a one-and-done is more successful than no appearance at all.
- Over the last 4 years, 35 schools have a new coach and 40 schools have had the same for all 4 seasons. I would expect over the next month that those numbers flip.
- Of the 40 schools that have had the same coach, there are 11 schools with a worse win percentage in the NCAA tournament as Texas (and 2 that have the same). The 11 schools are Oklahoma St, Virginia, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Minnesota, Northwestern, Stanford, Arizona St, Washington St, and Oregon St. The 2 schools with the same record are Vanderbilt and UCLA.
- The bottom half in win percentage teams with the same coach has 10 schools besides Texas who did not make the NCAA Tournament this year. They include Virginia, Alabama, Georgia, Northwestern, Stanford, Arizona St, Washington St, Oregon St, Vanderbilt, and South Florida.
- There are 8 teams who have had a coaching change that also made the tournament this year. To be fair, Kansas St and Missouri were both left by good coaches taking another job.
- The top 10 win percentages over the last 4 years are really of no surprise:
1. Duke .800
2. Kentucky .765
3. Kansas .750
4. Ohio St .727
5. Syracuse .667
Michigan St .667
8. Wisconsin .625
9. North Carolina .600
10. Marquette .571
I have attached a link to my data.
This data is all well & good, but I also know what I see...& I see a Texas HC that's 20-20 in NCAA tournament games...0-5 in NCAA tournament games in 8 vs 9 seed...a Texas HC that's 5-13 vs Kansas since Bill Self took over...& a HC that has TWO losses vs Chaminade in his career
Not to mention that numerous internal locker room problems that have occurred year after year after..& quite frankly, I don't give a damn about any other program and comparing Barnes' success (or lack thereof) to those schools...UT deserves a successful program, regardless of the success of any other program
At $2.5M per year, The University of Texas deserves a head coach that will have success during the regular season & tournament...not a head coach that continues to lose to Kansas, throw away conf titles, & multiple losses to a Division II school...Rick Barnes has not earned and does not deserve another year @ The University of Texas
Carmody has been fired by Northwestern, BTW.
Howland is dead man walking.
Dawkins has been told win or else next year.
A general rundown of heat on the seats
One thing that stands out--no Big 12 coach has a hot seat index > 4. While there are reasons for most schools to be happy with what they have, the fact that no one appears to be very upset kind of underscores how little most schools care about the sport. However, I do think Barnes getting a 3 (1 is Izzo, Self, Krzyzewski, and 10 is fired) fails to account for the short remaining career span for Dodds.
I understand what you are saying and I agree. However, there are quite a few people who are saying that Rick Barnes deserves another year because of the success earlier on at the University of Texas. My point was only to show that there are very few schools who have done worse than Texas over the last 4 years and not replaced their coach. Did any of them have the Final Four at one point to fall back on that Coach Barnes does? Probably not, but at some point it has to become about what's going on now, and that is far from good.
Actually, your data seems to show just the opposite. Most of the schools that have done worse haven't replaced their coaches. Ford was supposedly on the hot seat, but a single good season seems to have fixed that. Bennett (UVa), Grant (Ala), and Fox (Georgia) aren't in any trouble. Some of the others coaching for the schools that have no more than one tournament win over the last 4 years might be under some scrutiny, but no one appears to be under the threat of quick canning other than Howland and Dawkins. Maybe Sendek, but that's about it.
Agree with you...& the data was good
I've just reached a point with Barnes that it's time for his supporters to look @ Barnes' problems & not use other schools success or lack thereof as justification to keep him...completely agree things aren't good right now & I don't see how giving Barnes another year, at $2.5M, makes it any better
Eh, it's actually right at 70% have replaced their coach with a worse record. There are 26 schools with a worse record that have replaced their coach and 11 that have not. There are also 3 tied with UT now that have replaced their coach.
Grant is already in trouble at Alabama and there is discussion on wanting to replace him already. Bennett was one of the first teams to miss the tournament this year and shown improvement every season he has been there. All of the coaches you named are finishing year 4 at their respective school, which is the case for the majority of the guys on the "still have their job" side of that record.
Mandatory Credit: Kelly Lambert-USA TODAY Sports The Alabama Crimson Tide’s hopes of making the NCAA Tournament this year were all but extinguished o
Sorry, didn't look at the bottom of the list where you had the teams that have replaced coaches in the last 4 years.
However, to be fair, you can't include the following as schools that replaced their coaches due to poor tournament results
TCU (coach left for Ohio)
OU (Capel gone because of player problems)
Maryland (Williams retired at 66)
Iowa State (McDermott resigned to go to Creighton)
A&M (Turgeon left for Maryland)
Clemson (Purnell left for DePaul)
Penn State (DeChellis left, citing lack of commitment to the program)
Miami (Haith fled to Missouri)
It's also hard to say Stansbury would have been fired. He just seemed deflated by poor play and sick about all the drama about his players.
So I think you're looking at something a lot closer to 50-50.
This post was edited by bierce 13 months ago
those schools have ADs that seem to care.
Agreed. It's very difficult to get a precise comparison as it's not always as simple as a coach leaving due to poor performance. The only school that I feel like you can even remotely compare our situation to is UCLA due to somewhat equivalent prior success under the current regime, however UCLA has more right to hold their coach to an extreme standard than we do so even that comparison can be unfair.
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