Online Now 997

Horns247 Board

The place to talk about the Texas Longhorns

On this Board 638
Record: 4156 (12/1/2012)

Online now 928
Record: 7224 (2/22/2012)

Boards ▾

Horns247 Board

The place to talk about the Texas Longhorns

6th Street

The place for off topic discussion on Hookem

Reply

BREAKING: Maryland and Rutgers to Big 10?

  • The Big XII currently splits a very large pie only 10 ways. The only reason to expand is to increase the size of the pie so that everyone makes more from first and second tier media rights.

    There simply aren't many programs that can do that for the Big XII right now so there isn't much incentive to expand.

    The other conferences are expanding because they have conference networks that need to grow and feed the third tier rights that everyone gave up to the conference. Big boy programs who know they are getting less than what they are worth need greater footprints of the conference networks in order to make up the difference. This results in a much larger pool of expansion targets for those conferences as they try to expand their media footprint to get their networks on basic cable in more households. These programs don't even have to be good as long as they provide access to large media markets.

    That's why Florida State and Clemson aren't being considered for the SEC. The Florida and South Carolina markets are already in the SEC Network footprint. North Carolina and Virginia are not which is why NCSU and VT would be better options.

    Since the Big XII teams each own their own third tier rights the only consideration is the effect on first and second tier rights. The only expansion targets that make sense for us are those that provide a "big splash" and can bump up those numbers enough to make everyone more money. Everyone else in the conference is responsible for their own third tier rights and isn't held hostage by a conference network.

    So the bottom line is that the incentives that are driving other conferences to expand like crazy and keep this realignment mess going aren't currently there for the Big XII. That doesn't mean that expansion doesn't make sense for the Big XII at all - it just isn't the same kind of money driver for our league like it is for the B1G and SEC.

    The Dog ●

  • The Dog said...

    The Big XII currently splits a very large pie only 10 ways. The only reason to expand is to increase the size of the pie so that everyone makes more from first and second tier media rights.

    There simply aren't many programs that can do that for the Big XII right now so there isn't much incentive to expand.

    The other conferences are expanding because they have conference networks that need to grow and feed the third tier rights that everyone gave up to the conference. Big boy programs who know they are getting less than what they are worth need greater footprints of the conference networks in order to make up the difference. This results in a much larger pool of expansion targets for those conferences as they try to expand their media footprint to get their networks on basic cable in more households. These programs don't even have to be good as long as they provide access to large media markets.

    That's why Florida State and Clemson aren't being considered for the SEC. The Florida and South Carolina markets are already in the SEC Network footprint. North Carolina and Virginia are not which is why NCSU and VT would be better options.

    Since the Big XII teams each own their own third tier rights the only consideration is the effect on first and second tier rights. The only expansion targets that make sense for us are those that provide a "big splash" and can bump up those numbers enough to make everyone more money. Everyone else in the conference is responsible for their own third tier rights and isn't held hostage by a conference network.

    So the bottom line is that the incentives that are driving other conferences to expand like crazy and keep this realignment mess going aren't currently there for the Big XII. That doesn't mean that expansion doesn't make sense for the Big XII at all - it just isn't the same kind of money driver for our league like it is for the B1G and SEC.


    The reality is, without expansion, the Big 12 will be left behind. Several other conferences going to 16 is going to tip various scales against the smaller conferences. It is only typical Texas myopia that will prevent the Big 12 from seeing this until it is too late. I am not saying spring to 16 tomorrow. But if the B1G goes to 16, and the SEC is headed there, and the Pac 12 has their title game, the Big 12 is short on bargaining power in the grand scheme, and it really doesn't matter how much more money Texas puts into its coffers while this happens.

    I agree with most of your post, but looking at the chaos of the whole thing means there are things we don't understand that will impact the overall outlook and in all likelihood, whatever happens is going to favor the groups with size.

    close to jumping

  • Maryland officially voted it in this morning apparently.

    UTexasgunslinger

  • UTexasgunslinger said...

    Maryland officially voted it in this morning apparently.

    Rutgers will be tomorrow.

    Big 12 needs to step its game up and got get FSU.

    PDX Horn

  • close to jumping said...

    The reality is, without expansion, the Big 12 will be left behind. Several other conferences going to 16 is going to tip various scales against the smaller conferences. It is only typical Texas myopia that will prevent the Big 12 from seeing this until it is too late. I am not saying spring to 16 tomorrow. But if the B1G goes to 16, and the SEC is headed there, and the Pac 12 has their title game, the Big 12 is short on bargaining power in the grand scheme, and it really doesn't matter how much more money Texas puts into its coffers while this happens.

    I agree with most of your post, but looking at the chaos of the whole thing means there are things we don't understand that will impact the overall outlook and in all likelihood, whatever happens is going to favor the groups with size.

    Just curious, but how do you define "left behind" in this context? I could see it as having far less lucrative Tier 1 and 2 deals, but I'm not sure if the additions to the SEC and B1G are really going to help them that much other than for the conference network distribution. The media markets they are adding are nice but these aren't exactly football powerhouses with massive followings. They lack brand value.

    Being Texas fans we already know that bigger isn't always better. ;)

    Do you think not having a conference network will be a hindrance to the Big XII long term? I think that's the real question that nobody knows the answer to right now.

    This post was edited by The Dog on 11/19/2012 at 10:00 AM

    The Dog ●

  • I think the Big 12 would be stupid not to add at least two ACC programs while they can. I'm very much against adding teams that are not quality (Boise, BYU, Houston, Rutgers, Pitt, etc.) but I'm strongly in support of adding two teams that would strengthen the conference over the long term. Yes, the conference is strong this year and the round robin seems to work fine. But I think it's just as likely that teams like Kansas State, TCU and Baylor revert back to their historic norm - which is below average. When those programs lose their coaches, who are all excellent, there is a decent chance those programs revert back to their norm. The conference very well could be at a competitive disadvantage in strength of schedule. I think adding FSU and any one of GT, CU or VT would make too much sense to pass up. We can debate going to 14 or 16 later. But at this point add two strong programs while there seems to be an opportunity.

    Jackdaddy ●

  • The Dog said...

    Just curious, but how do you define "left behind" in this context? I could see it as having far less lucrative Tier 1 and 2 deals, but I'm not sure if the additions to the SEC and B1G are really going to help them that much other than for the conference network distribution. The media markets they are adding are nice but these aren't exactly football powerhouses with massive followings. They lack brand value.

    Being Texas fans we already know that bigger isn't always better. ;)

    Do you think not having a conference network will be a hindrance to the Big XII long term? I think that's the real question that nobody knows the answer to right now.

    The B1G and SEC by going to 16 teams will now have top heavy conferences and better chances of getting more schools in the upcoming playoffs. Look at the SEC this year. If Notre Dame loses there is a good chance that Florida and Alabama could play each other in the MNC yet they did not have to play each other this year.

    Hookem89

  • Hookem89 said...

    The B1G and SEC by going to 16 teams will now have top heavy conferences and better chances of getting more schools in the upcoming playoffs. Look at the SEC this year. If Notre Dame loses there is a good chance that Florida and Alabama could play each other in the MNC yet they did not have to play each other this year.

    I could see that and if there's one thing we need in this conference it's some lighter competition. We're almost too strong top to bottom in this conference (7 of the 10 teams have won BCS bowl games including Kansas).

    But I think that even with the expanded playoff there will be limits to the number of teams in the playoff from a single conference. So I'm not sure that will be much of an issue.

    The Dog ●

  • I just want to add real quick that I'm all for adding Florida State, Miami, Clemson, and Georgia Tech should the opportunity present itself. I'm pro-expansion. Just presenting what I think is the current point of the view of the majority of the Big XII from what I understand (and not just Texas even though I don't doubt we are a major driver in that POV).

    The Dog ●

  • Everyone is playing poker at the table. B12 has to play or lose while playing old maid. Louisville is pissed cause we took WV instead after offering. Fl st and Clem are a lil pissed cause of the cold shoulder we held out. With Conf going to 14 da b12 cannot stay at 10.
    When people say its not about the money it's about the $.

    Chicoman

  • PDX Horn said...

    Rutgers will be tomorrow.

    Big 12 needs to step its game up and got get FSU.

    That quickly? What about the GT talk? Does Rutgers have an invite already?

    UTexasgunslinger

  • The Dog said...

    I could see that and if there's one thing we need in this conference it's some lighter competition. We're almost too strong top to bottom in this conference (7 of the 10 teams have won BCS bowl games including Kansas).

    But I think that even with the expanded playoff there will be limits to the number of teams in the playoff from a single conference. So I'm not sure that will be much of an issue.


    This post right here is a good example of how the Big 12 can be "left behind". You reference that you expect limits on total teams from a single conference, but guess who will probably and always vote against that - teams with 16 teams in their conference. They'll also wind up with better numbers in bowls games, more people on selection committees, and better ties in conference to conference non-con matchups that aid in driving up the prestige of the conferences and driving out the non-major conferences from scheduling legitimate teams and getting a strong shot at getting into the playoffs (the Big Easts, and MWCs, of the world).

    Don't think any of that could happen? None of us know. You and I can't see around that corner yet. But if you just play the odds, the side with more schools will probably wind up with more of everything. It's not hard to think of it as a simple numbers game. If 32 (B1G/SEC) or 44 (B1G/SEC/PAC12) are voting one way, the conference with 10 voting the other way isn't going to get its way. It doesn't matter if "We're Texas" is involved. Notre Dame will be in an even worse predicament.

    The writing is on the wall. He who has the numbers will have the power. Only typical Texas isolationist myopia will prevent Texas from seeing this and continuing to stymie the Clemson move over the Big 12 and whatever growth from there that can happen once FSU and Clemson are here.

    The people making these moves right now are not acting in anger or haste. These are cool heads making long term decisions and they are working a plan that involves a bigger picture. Were they not, the next salvo wouldn't have been Maryland to the B1G. Hopefully our folks get that and are plotting and scheming on their own. If other guys are playing "Who can build an army faster?" and the Big 12 doesn't even realize the game is being played, go ahead and smoke'em if you got'em because the aftermath will not resemble anything we wanted.

    close to jumping

  • UTexasgunslinger said...

    That quickly? What about the GT talk? Does Rutgers have an invite already?

    Apparently they do. That came from Andy Karz at ESPN.

    PDX Horn

  • The Dog said...

    I could see that and if there's one thing we need in this conference it's some lighter competition. We're almost too strong top to bottom in this conference (7 of the 10 teams have won BCS bowl games including Kansas).

    But I think that even with the expanded playoff there will be limits to the number of teams in the playoff from a single conference. So I'm not sure that will be much of an issue.

    I just don't think this year is indicative of what will be average within the conference. I have every reason to believe that some combination of Baylor, TCU, Kansas State, Kansas and Iowa State will consistently be below average programs. Baylor, TCU, Kansas State and Iowa State all have very good coaches and I don't believe they will all hold onto those coaches. Even Oklahoma State is at risk of losing their coach at some point. I think in three/five years the competitive balance in the conference could very well change. From a historic perspective this is certainly not a top heavy conference.

    We should go after FSU and another (CU, VT, or GT). Would be stupid not to.

    This post was edited by Jackdaddy on 11/19/2012 at 11:01 AM

    Jackdaddy ●

  • close to jumping said...

    This post right here is a good example of how the Big 12 can be "left behind". You reference that you expect limits on total teams from a single conference, but guess who will probably and always vote against that - teams with 16 teams in their conference. They'll also wind up with better numbers in bowls games, more people on selection committees, and better ties in conference to conference non-con matchups that aid in driving up the prestige of the conferences and driving out the non-major conferences from scheduling legitimate teams and getting a strong shot at getting into the playoffs (the Big Easts, and MWCs, of the world).

    Don't think any of that could happen? None of us know. You and I can't see around that corner yet. But if you just play the odds, the side with more schools will probably wind up with more of everything. It's not hard to think of it as a simple numbers game. If 32 (B1G/SEC) or 44 (B1G/SEC/PAC12) are voting one way, the conference with 10 voting the other way isn't going to get its way. It doesn't matter if "We're Texas" is involved. Notre Dame will be in an even worse predicament.

    The writing is on the wall. He who has the numbers will have the power. Only typical Texas isolationist myopia will prevent Texas from seeing this and continuing to stymie the Clemson move over the Big 12 and whatever growth from there that can happen once FSU and Clemson are here.

    The people making these moves right now are not acting in anger or haste. These are cool heads making long term decisions and they are working a plan that involves a bigger picture. Were they not, the next salvo wouldn't have been Maryland to the B1G. Hopefully our folks get that and are plotting and scheming on their own. If other guys are playing "Who can build an army faster?" and the Big 12 doesn't even realize the game is being played, go ahead and smoke'em if you got'em because the aftermath will not resemble anything we wanted.

    This echos my concerns.

    Most of my concerns are completely off the field concerns, and on paper i like round robin. I didn't intend this to be a gushing SEC post, but the fact is Slive is blowing us out of the water.

    That being said look at the 'scheduling' in the sec this year , namely bama's schedule. they are more or less protected from any real competition. Next year is next year, but the bottom line is that not all of their strongest teams will knock themselves out of the race.

    This also leaves them higher ranked, i mean just look at these ridiculous rankings.

    Futhermore the whole play an fcs team late in the year is basically a bye week for them, and also protects them from more losses.

    Finally, as CTJ mentioned, we are deluding ourselves into thinking that with B1G going to 14, and SEC at 14, that the following will not occur:

    1) PAC going to 14
    2) Playoff selection committees could be in jeopordy of bias against us ( read as biased FOR conferences with more members to vote)
    3) More of the playoff slots going to larger conferences ( not us ) because of the above bias and scheduling benefits.

    I really feel that this is putting us at a profound disadvantage. Hopefully I'm overreacting , but I really don't see any positives to stay at 10, and that any talks of splitting the pie are not taking the above playoff projections into account.

    horned_lurker ●

  • If the Big 12 has to expand, then go to 16, with the caveat of not playing any teams from the other division in football. That would be 7 conference games and 5 non-conference games. The winner of each division play each other in the championship game. No cross divisional games maximizes the Big 12's chances of landing 2-3 teams in the playoff, because we all know it's going to expand past 4 very soon. That's where college football is going.

    NLeininger ●

  • NLeininger said...

    If the Big 12 has to expand, then go to 16, with the caveat of not playing any teams from the other division in football. That would be 7 conference games and 5 non-conference games. The winner of each division play each other in the championship game. No cross divisional games maximizes the Big 12's chances of landing 2-3 teams in the playoff, because we all know it's going to expand past 4 very soon. That's where college football is going.

    this also plays to the advantage to the big12 product itself, great football.

    take it to the field, schedule around to give us playoff advantage, and beat up the other leagues.

    horned_lurker ●

  • MattCarter said...

    Pile some more garbage into this conference.

    GFYFarmer

    Black Shipley

  • I'd love to hear Bobby's thoughts on this. Are we still pro-10 team league now that Notre Dame is aligned with the ACC? Anytime you hear expansion discussion it's never originating from Texas sources.

    TXA2009

  • Big Ten shores up a weakness with latest expansion -- college football - ESPN

    Now that the Big Ten is ready to expand with Maryland and Rutgers, a big question remains: is it done adding?

    espn.go.com

    textex

  • This post is for members of Horns247 only. Join now! 7-Day Free Trial

    mcwast ●

  • This post is for members of Horns247 only. Join now! 7-Day Free Trial

    National Director of Scouting & Recruiting Analyst @GerryHam247

    Gerry Hamilton ●

  • Looks like UConn might be joining the ACC. The football schools cannot be happy with this addition. Louisville would have been the better choice.

    Report: UConn could announce ACC move Tuesday | SI Tracking Blog – Tracking MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL, and NCAA On Twitter

    SI Tracking Blog - Breaking Sports News As It Happens From The MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL, NCAA And Formula 1

    tracking.si.com

    Hookem89

  • Would Texas ever consider jumping ship to join the BIG TEN if the money was around 50million a year?

    signature image
     signature image signature image

    hamham121 ●

  • hamham121 said...

    Would Texas ever consider jumping ship to join the BIG TEN if the money was around 50million a year?

    Really not a relevant question for another 10 or 11 years with the 12 year grant of rights for the Big 12. GOR will make any move a bit unrealistic until that time.

    Jackdaddy ●

Texas
247Sports
Features
Resources
Connect

247Sports In partnership with CBS Sports