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2012 Season predictions

  • So I would like to share my unbiased predictions for the season. I am actually a little bit of a math geek and can't help doing averages and assigning numerical values to things. Having said all that, I looked at key predictors for football outcome. 1) Returning starters 2) QB 3) Unit strength (magazines) 4) Talent (247 and Rivals evals) 5) Coaching.

    Wyoming W+++
    New Mexico W+++
    Ole Miss W+
    OSU W
    WVU push
    Oklahoma L
    Baylor W++
    Kansas W+++
    Texas Tech W+++
    ISU W+++
    TCU W+
    KSU W+

    Texas benefits greatly in my evaluations from very high scores for Running Backs, Defensive Backs, Defensive Line and high scores for Line backers, Coaching and over all depth. The negatives were QB, WR and Kicking which I have rated average to below average vs the rest of the conference. Texas was barely ahead of OSU for the win prediction and came up a little behind vs WVU (home field got it to even).

    At the end of the day I have Texas 2nd place in the Big 12 with a projected record of 10-1-1 (I know they won't tie) and finishing in the top 10 and going to a good bowl.

    76-37-5

    ut755

  • 755...............appreciate your optimism but what makes you think we will beat KSU. Hell even when we are a really good team we struggle vs the Wildcats..............

    "Leadership is wisdom, courage and great carelessness of self"

    austinr

  • I've said 10-2 since last season ended, I see no reason to change my prediction. I'm not sure who our losses will be but I figure if we beat the teams we should, we only have to win 1 of 3 against OU, WVU, and KSU to make it happen, and that seems very doable to me.

    signature image signature image signature image

    Canadianhorn

  • austinr said...

    755...............appreciate your optimism but what makes you think we will beat KSU. Hell even when we are a really good team we struggle vs the Wildcats..............

    This years D is > last years D

    Cat

  • Cat said...

    This years D is > last years D

    In theory. And 2012 offense>>2011 offense...in theory. If those theories hold true, Texas will finish 10-2 or better.

    ChampKind

  • I always do mine at the beginning of August, but mine will include scores. Right now, the only thing that looks fuzzy to me is what will happen at QB. I still think that a number of different things can happen there that would affect my confidence level.

    "I've heard some of our fans say, 'We were always an SEC school. We just didn't know it," athletic director Bill Byrne said.

    Bevo52

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    mcwast

  • I am of the same school of thought, but I went back over the weekend and watched the bowl win over Cal. I saw a huge difference in Ash with just 15 extra practices. He may not have lit them up with his arm, but he made good decisions and took care of the ball.

    If he progresses this summer at the same rate he did over those 15 practices, I think we are in very good shape.

    signature image signature image signature image

    Even if it means pissin' you off a little bit to get you to work, I'm not gonna' let you down. ~ Bennie Wylie

    papa horn

  • 13-0,until proven otherwise. If you don't believe if you can win. Why practice so hard. The state of Texas is too damn hot on the summer to work that hard and not believe you can win.

    okhornfan

  • papa horn said...

    I am of the same school of thought, but I went back over the weekend and watched the bowl win over Cal. I saw a huge difference in Ash with just 15 extra practices. He may not have lit them up with his arm, but he made good decisions and took care of the ball.

    If he progresses this summer at the same rate he did over those 15 practices, I think we are in very good shape.

    He was making good decisions in the KSU game. They were just a beat late, or in one instance the throw was a beat early. I think his floor is functional this year, and his ceiling is above average. Good is another year away.

    As for beating KSU, barring in jury we have no holes on the defense, should have decent kick coverage teams, and have put together an offense that is interested in and capable of moving the ball on the ground while setting up the pass. All of those were were weak points in our recent run of losses to the Wildcats. I'm not saying it will be easy, but once upon a time we were finding ways to beat them and not vice versa.

    I got brains. I got big ol' brains. I got dinosaur brains.

    Bobby_Batronic

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    rozell99

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    btown1110

  • why do u have ou as an L?
    game is a push just like Wv should be. They are not better than us, on paper or on the field. Both teams have a lot of issues that need to be fixed.

    TheContractor

  • TheContractor said...

    why do u have ou as an L? game is a push just like Wv should be. They are not better than us, on paper or on the field. Both teams have a lot of issues that need to be fixed.

    Apparently you haven't heard. OU has answered all of their questions.

    signature image signature image signature image

    Even if it means pissin' you off a little bit to get you to work, I'm not gonna' let you down. ~ Bennie Wylie

    papa horn

  • TheContractor said...

    why do u have ou as an L?
    game is a push just like Wv should be. They are not better than us, on paper or on the field. Both teams have a lot of issues that need to be fixed.

    IMO Texas just isn't matched up right to beat OU offensively. They will have 8 players in the box and force Ash to beat them. They're going to blitz a ton. I don't see how you can say its not a loss until we see serious improvement from Ash during the first couple of games...

    NYHorn

  • NYHorn said...

    IMO Texas just isn't matched up right to beat OU offensively. They will have 8 players in the box and force Ash to beat them. They're going to blitz a ton. I don't see how you can say its not a loss until we see serious improvement from Ash during the first couple of games...

    Things that changed from last year

    Ash actually gets to prepare for a starters role. Let's remember it was Gilbert, Woods, McCoy, Ash one year ago today.

    Cochran started at LT and Espinosa started at C as true freshmen. Cochran was undersized and both missed significant practice/conditioning due to illness/injury. We added a juco LT that received good reports in the Spring which not only gives us better protection for the backside, it allows us to not play people out of position on the OL like we did last year.

    Brown and Bergeron are 100% healthy and throw Gray in the mix.

    Rumors have them actually building a game plan for Monroe and throw Daje in there as well.

    Harris was showing promise at WR before going down and now he is healthy again. Also add Cayleb Jones and Marcus Johnson as possible early contributors.

    DJ Grant showed a lot of potential at the TE position after being injured most of last year.

    Let them put 8 in the box. Other than Jefferson, they really don't have much back there. I think Ash will have progressed enough that with Grant, Shipley, Davis, Goodwin and your pick of Gray, Brown, Bergeron, Monroe or Daje that he will be able to find someone. Let's not forget that Ash is also capable of pulling the ball down and taking off as well.

    It is easier for me to believe our returning players will grow with year under their belts than it is to believe that OU's almost totally inexperienced WR's will step up in their first year.

    I may be wrong, but so could everyone else.smoke

    signature image signature image signature image

    Even if it means pissin' you off a little bit to get you to work, I'm not gonna' let you down. ~ Bennie Wylie

    papa horn

  • Also Ash had only thrown 19 total passes in college when he faced OU last year. McCoy had only thrown 37.

    They combined for 20-37 223 yds 1 Td and 2 picks. Not a great day but when you consider the inexperience they should be glad to even be alive.

    We had eight sacks and five turnovers. I don't see that happening again this year.

    signature image signature image signature image

    Even if it means pissin' you off a little bit to get you to work, I'm not gonna' let you down. ~ Bennie Wylie

    papa horn

  • I think we win them all too (at least before the national championship game). The conference is down this year, and Texas has the most overall talent, the best coaching staff, the best defense, and the best running game.

    hooked3333

  • papa horn said...

    Things that changed from last year

    Ash actually gets to prepare for a starters role. Let's remember it was Gilbert, Woods, McCoy, Ash one year ago today.

    Cochran started at LT and Espinosa started at C as true freshmen. Cochran was undersized and both missed significant practice/conditioning due to illness/injury. We added a juco LT that received good reports in the Spring which not only gives us better protection for the backside, it allows us to not play people out of position on the OL like we did last year.

    Brown and Bergeron are 100% healthy and throw Gray in the mix.

    Rumors have them actually building a game plan for Monroe and throw Daje in there as well.

    Harris was showing promise at WR before going down and now he is healthy again. Also add Cayleb Jones and Marcus Johnson as possible early contributors.

    DJ Grant showed a lot of potential at the TE position after being injured most of last year.

    Let them put 8 in the box. Other than Jefferson, they really don't have much back there. I think Ash will have progressed enough that with Grant, Shipley, Davis, Goodwin and your pick of Gray, Brown, Bergeron, Monroe or Daje that he will be able to find someone. Let's not forget that Ash is also capable of pulling the ball down and taking off as well.

    It is easier for me to believe our returning players will grow with year under their belts than it is to believe that OU's almost totally inexperienced WR's will step up in their first year.

    I may be wrong, but so could everyone else.smoke

    I get all of that. But I don't buy anything until I see, in a game, Ash making the plays necessary to win a game. OU proved they could stop the Texas running game when the quart back isn't a playmaker.

    But just because Ash and McCoy will have more "game experience" I don't think Texas will do better offensively. If we see Ash prove against crappy teams the first three games of the season that he can make big plays with his arm, then I'll feel better about the OU game. IMO Ash can't be a "game-manager" against OU solely due to the fact that they can stop the run. I don't think WVU can. But OU can. So, Ash will have to be a "playmaker/game-changer" IMO to put enough points for Texas to win.

    NYHorn

  • I think our defense will do more then just keep us in every game. Against Aggie last year it seemed like we had a better chance to score on defense then on offense. I think we go 12-0. OU is a coin toss, and with the law of averages... It's our turn.

    driftwoodHorn

  • Papa Horn said

    Cochran started at LT and Espinosa started at C as true freshmen. .smoke

    I've seen you state this a couple times now. For the record, Espinosa was the other OL in the class with Hopkins. That made him a RS Freshman las t year, not a True Freshman. Not a big deal, just wanted to clarify.

    This post was edited by Redbandito25 on 7/2/2012 at 9:15 PM

    Redbandito25

  • papa horn said...

    Things that changed from last year

    Ash actually gets to prepare for a starters role. Let's remember it was Gilbert, Woods, McCoy, Ash one year ago today.

    Cochran started at LT and Espinosa started at C as true freshmen. Cochran was undersized and both missed significant practice/conditioning due to illness/injury. We added a juco LT that received good reports in the Spring which not only gives us better protection for the backside, it allows us to not play people out of position on the OL like we did last year.

    Brown and Bergeron are 100% healthy and throw Gray in the mix.

    Rumors have them actually building a game plan for Monroe and throw Daje in there as well.

    Harris was showing promise at WR before going down and now he is healthy again. Also add Cayleb Jones and Marcus Johnson as possible early contributors.

    DJ Grant showed a lot of potential at the TE position after being injured most of last year.

    Let them put 8 in the box. Other than Jefferson, they really don't have much back there. I think Ash will have progressed enough that with Grant, Shipley, Davis, Goodwin and your pick of Gray, Brown, Bergeron, Monroe or Daje that he will be able to find someone. Let's not forget that Ash is also capable of pulling the ball down and taking off as well.

    It is easier for me to believe our returning players will grow with year under their belts than it is to believe that OU's almost totally inexperienced WR's will step up in their first year.

    I may be wrong, but so could everyone else.smoke

    NM

    This post was edited by Redbandito25 on 7/2/2012 at 9:07 PM

    Redbandito25

  • NYHorn said...

    I get all of that. But I don't buy anything until I see, in a game, Ash making the plays necessary to win a game. OU proved they could stop the Texas running game when the quart back isn't a playmaker.

    But just because Ash and McCoy will have more "game experience" I don't think Texas will do better offensively. If we see Ash prove against crappy teams the first three games of the season that he can make big plays with his arm, then I'll feel better about the OU game. IMO Ash can't be a "game-manager" against OU solely due to the fact that they can stop the run. I don't think WVU can. But OU can. So, Ash will have to be a "playmaker/game-changer" IMO to put enough points for Texas to win.

    Fair enough, but if you're not buying what I'm selling you also can't buy that OU will be as good on offense as they were last year without the 214 yards Broyles and Reynolds had. I think our defense can as much or more damage against their offense as their defense can do to ours.

    It's not so much the game experience Ash has as it is that he will get starters reps for an entire Spring and Summer. And where you and I differ is that I believe we can beat OU with Ash as a game manager. If we don't turn the ball over five times and take eight sacks it's a different game last year. If I recall correctly OU's offense only scored about 28 points without the help of turnovers.

    The debate will continue until October, but I like our chances.

    signature image signature image signature image

    Even if it means pissin' you off a little bit to get you to work, I'm not gonna' let you down. ~ Bennie Wylie

    papa horn

  • Redbandito25 said...

    I've seen you state this a couple times now. For the record, Espinosa was the other OL in the class with Hopkins. That made him a RS Freshman las t year, not a True Freshman. Not a big deal, just wanted to clarify.

    I stand corrected.

    signature image signature image signature image

    Even if it means pissin' you off a little bit to get you to work, I'm not gonna' let you down. ~ Bennie Wylie

    papa horn

  • papa horn said...

    Fair enough, but if you're not buying what I'm selling you also can't buy that OU will be as good on offense as they were last year without the 214 yards Broyles and Reynolds had. I think our defense can as much or more damage against their offense as their defense can do to ours.

    It's not so much the game experience Ash has as it is that he will get starters reps for an entire Spring and Summer. And where you and I differ is that I believe we can beat OU with Ash as a game manager. If we don't turn the ball over five times and take eight sacks it's a different game last year. If I recall correctly OU's offense only scored about 28 points without the help of turnovers.

    The debate will continue until October, but I like our chances.

    But I think Ash was in the manager role last year. And he still turned the ball over. A lot. All we can go on now is the fact that he managed the Cal game, but OU is much better than Cal. OU brings much more pressure. They will force Ash to beat them.

    NYHorn