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Bob in Houston ●
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bierce said...
I think Sweet Sixteen is still more of a maybe than a must-be. Until we see Ridley succeeding against taller established D I players, we have to have questions about interior offense. Until we see someone (anyone!) hit 3s with regularity, we have to question the perimeter shooting. Until we see Holmes and McClellan regularly succeed on defense at staying between their men and the basket, we have questions about defense at 3/4. Until we see Ibeh shoot a free throw, we . . . oh, never mind.
The team is getting better; I have little doubt about that. I just don't think it is quite there yet. I have been saying for over a year that I see 2013-14 as the year this bunch congeals into a very powerful team. I hope they are a year ahead of schedule, but I'm not going to predict it before seeing them in action in November.
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bierce said...
I think Sweet Sixteen is still more of a maybe than a must-be. Until we see Ridley succeeding against taller established D I players, we have to have questions about interior offense. Until we see someone (anyone!) hit 3s with regularity, we have to question the perimeter shooting. Until we see Holmes and McClellan regularly succeed on defense at staying between their men and the basket, we have questions about defense at 3/4. Until we see Ibeh shoot a free throw, we . . . oh, never mind.
The team is getting better; I have little doubt about that. I just don't think it is quite there yet. I have been saying for over a year that I see 2013-14 as the year this bunch congeals into a very powerful team. I hope they are a year ahead of schedule, but I'm not going to predict it before seeing them in action in November.
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gordosan said...
Improving last year's team is a low bar. We were a very marginal tourney team. Without Pollard, we may be better; but are at best a marginal Sweet Sixteen team. In reality, the only position that any incoming freshman will be an improvement over last year is Ridley. Obviously, he gives us a true low post scorer and defensive rebounder. Beyond Ridley, we will see three other freshman play but none will make a major impact and none will be upgrades from last year. Ibeh will be Wangneme at back-up center. Felix will be better at back-up point than Gibbs, but in reality Brown was our back-up point last year. Papa will get minutes; but I don't think he can play defense at S.F. and isn't strong enough to play P.F. at this point. Apparently, people close to the program think he will contribute as a S.F. next year; but count me as skeptical.
The three freshman guards/wings who are coming back will all be better; but we have to balance that against the loss of our go to scorer and best distributor. I've watched the college games for a long time; and very few teams replace a player with Brown's offensive skill set without a drop-off. Simply look at Conneticut's drop-off last year. I don't see how a guard wing rotation of Lewis, McClellan Kabongo along with Felix is better than last year. It may be fashionable to say that losing Brown makes us better next year; but that flies in the face of basketball history. Finally, we bring back two undersized power forwards. Holmes has marginal power forward length with decent offensive skills, but desperately needs to get bigger and stronger to defend the low post and rebound. Bond needs a miracle and grow two inches.
Better than last year, but now by that much unless Papa makes a much bigger contribution that I expect. A 15-25 team depending on multiple factors.
"Leadership is wisdom, courage and great carelessness of self"
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austinr said...
Think about this...............last years team was the worst team in the Rick Barnes era. Still they were not blown out with the exception of the UNC game. Experience, especially with an experienced PG, and the team could at least split those close games. That means 27-7 record..........
I am one of the people who, while I appreciate J'Browns contributions (and the personal issues he overcame) think the Horns are better without him. For 3 years you never knew if he was going to go off the reservation at anytime. The NCST game this year was an example. We will need to get offense from our wings and garbage points from our big men but this team should be very good defensively and the ability to rebound.
For me this team is better and its not even close to the 2011-2012 team.
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texaztom said...
The good news is that we don't have to replace Brown's scoring with one. player. His points can be distributed among many players. As a go-to scorer at the end of a tight game, Brown had some limitations due to his lack of explosive athletic ability, or the ability to make a long shot off the dribble. This made him easy to guard with a double team. The defense either forced him to take a bad shot, or to give up the ball to somebody who lacked the confidence to make a good shot.
A team with a low post scoring threat, and big offensive rebounders, is much tougher to defend in those situations. It's easier to spread the defense, and give your offense some room to work.
"Leadership is wisdom, courage and great carelessness of self"
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Bob in Houston ●
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Bob in Houston said...
2007 -- mostly freshmen, with Durant: 25 wins. 2008 -- virtually same team, without Durant: 31 wins.
Now, will they have a PG good enough to go in the lottery? Possible, but I wouldn't count on it. But they're adding a legitimate center and will gain experience at every other position. They'll be better. Schedule will be harder, and the Big 12 will still be strong.
They'll be capable of a S16, but they just as easily might not make it.
"Leadership is wisdom, courage and great carelessness of self"
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gordosan said...
Improving last year's team is a low bar. We were a very marginal tourney team. Without Pollard, we may be better; but are at best a marginal Sweet Sixteen team. In reality, the only position that any incoming freshman will be an improvement over last year is Ridley. Obviously, he gives us a true low post scorer and defensive rebounder. Beyond Ridley, we will see three other freshman play but none will make a major impact and none will be upgrades from last year. Ibeh will be Wangneme at back-up center. Felix will be better at back-up point than Gibbs, but in reality Brown was our back-up point last year. Papa will get minutes; but I don't think he can play defense at S.F. and isn't strong enough to play P.F. at this point. Apparently, people close to the program think he will contribute as a S.F. next year; but count me as skeptical.
The three freshman guards/wings who are coming back will all be better; but we have to balance that against the loss of our go to scorer and best distributor. I've watched the college games for a long time; and very few teams replace a player with Brown's offensive skill set without a drop-off. Simply look at Conneticut's drop-off last year. I don't see how a guard wing rotation of Lewis, McClellan Kabongo along with Felix is better than last year. It may be fashionable to say that losing Brown makes us better next year; but that flies in the face of basketball history. Finally, we bring back two undersized power forwards. Holmes has marginal power forward length with decent offensive skills, but desperately needs to get bigger and stronger to defend the low post and rebound. Bond needs a miracle and grow two inches.
Better than last year, but now by that much unless Papa makes a much bigger contribution that I expect. A 15-25 team depending on multiple factors.
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Bob in Houston ●
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Gerry Hamilton ●
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